I am a trans tech person who strongly suspects this person will transition based on pattern recognition of other software people I’ve known transitioning.
> In August 2022, I started 17aE2, non feminizing estradiol (Rx), based upon male longevity evidence. My dosing protocol is 4mg wk, transdermal. Since we started, there’s been no change to serum estrogen or testosterone and no known side effects.
i dont think that's fair. Diff cultures associate different features with youthfulness and i think thats what this is. I also dont think being trans makes anyone an authority on whether other people will become trans
I think you should think about it in terms of how much “naive optimism” you want to foster in your friends.
In truth, there’s good reasons do doubt every project, even the ones that end up being highly succesfull.
Unfortunately, it seems like human beings are highly pulled towards either working on something with unrealistic confidence, or sitting on the the couch and watching netflix.
Working on something with unrealistic confidence, even if that project itself is completely doomed to failure, is probably better for you than watching Netflix.
The one exception is, there is a higher than average probability that startup people with naive optimism end up getting into a position where they decide to end their life.
> Working on something with unrealistic confidence, even if that project itself is completely doomed to failure, is probably better for you than watching Netflix.
As someone who’s heavily biased towards just sitting on the couch (but reading a book, not watching Netflix :)), but married to an unrealistically confident wife, I have to agree.
I tend to panic whenever my wife comes up with her way-too-frequent ideas and goes ahead with them with minimal risk analysis, but at the end of the day she’s a much more accomplished and satisfied person than I am. I tend to look at every project from the most pessimistic angle possible and the end result is that I almost never actually do anything. I have a lot of book knowledge about a number of things but little to no experience, whereas she’s the exact opposite, and that tends to be more beneficial in real life.
Can you speak more on how you balance your persoanlities? How do you balance speaking from a pessimistic perfpective while also being encouraging and supportive?
> The one exception is, there is a higher than average probability that startup people with naive optimism end up getting into a position where they decide to end their life.
I wonder if this is true. It's certainly the case that plenty of people who do nothing with their lives end up being suicidal.
This feels like a well written article from someone who is very good at understanding numbers and finding objective facts but also is not quite able to fully grasp how the world works.
The mutational load thing rings true, because i both have a weird uneven resting expression and I am crazier than a shithouse rabbit.
I do think there is a big correlation between crazyness and “professional hot people” (sex workers, intimacy workers, many service people, models, actors, etc), being that the mental game of attraction is inherently irrational and it helps to operate on vibes vs. numbers.
I used to work at vrc. My feelings about the app rapidly swung between euphoric highs when I would hear about this (bringing back some of the old internet spirit was a particular fixation of mine as a geocities/irc kid) mixed with terrible lows when stories about something like grooming would come out.
It seems ridiculous to me to float this as something that is going to happen.