That is exactly what a moat is. Keeping others out.

moat noun a deep, wide ditch surrounding a castle, fort, or town, typically filled with water and intended as a defense against attack.

Precisely. First place needs the moat.

Second place just needs a catapult and a diseased cow.

Thousands, you say? [source missing]

There are only ~2300 Series C companies.

You're going to need to be this size to have a ~$100M+ exit.

There's about ~5 years between funding Series C and Series D [1].

Only ~55 Series C companies got funding in Q1 [2].

Only ~39 Series D companies got funding in Q1 [1].

You're going to have a MAX of about ~.7 * ~2300 * 1/5 = ~322 successful > $100M VC exits per year.

Ultimately, you really need to IPO to have a successful exit - and there's only ~257 per year total, only ~65% of which are VC = ~167.

~5% of FAANG is L7+ - if you're including Microsoft, Nvidia, AirBNB and all the other companies with FAANG-like pay - you're at >2M employees.

That's ~100k If the average tenure is ~10 years before retirement - you're looking at ~10k per year.

Okay - it's about ~100 per successful exit.

[1] https://carta.com/blog/state-of-private-markets-q3-2023/

[2] https://www.mosaic.tech/saas-startup-funding/series-c

Not saying I disagree with your conclusion, but if the question is about which is more likely from the perspective of an individual considering going either route, there’s also an implicit “given that an attempt was made”. You’re only comparing the absolute occurrence of each type of event rather than the occurrence relative to the number of attempts made.

What government handouts are you talking about? Stimulus ended years ago and food stamps can't go towards vehicle purchases.

People didn't spend all their pandemic surplus government transfers until relatively recently...