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I think this is wrong.

Someone says "it COULD be stuck for weeks"

It gets unstuck earlier, fine. Doesn't invalidate the possibility.

The criticism is moot. If anyone had made bets, then I'd take both more seriously.


We see this all the time with political polling.

"Oh, Nate Silver said Trump only had a 30% chance of winning the election, but he did, so Nate Silver is an idiot!"


Nate Silver wasn’t just a little off - he was massively off outside of accepted norms for polling.

Multiple times no less.


No, he really wasn't. In 2016 he was one of the most optimistic of the major poll aggregators on Trump's chances; he had Trump at 30% when others had him at much lower odds.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gav...

> Our final forecast, issued early Tuesday evening, had Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.1 By comparison, other models tracked by The New York Times put Trump’s odds at: 15 percent, 8 percent, 2 percent and less than 1 percent.

As for 2020:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-...

> This year was definitely a little weird, given that the vote share margins were often fairly far off from the polls (including in some high-profile examples such as Wisconsin and Florida). But at the same time, a high percentage of states (likely 48 out of 50) were “called” correctly, as was the overall Electoral College and popular vote winner (Biden). And that’s usually how polls are judged: Did they identify the right winner?

(He also doesn't do the polling. He's an analyst, not a pollster.)


Lol - quoting himself to back up his performance?

How about linking to others and not him defending his performance. Of course he’s going to have excuses.

Live a little and maybe even pick sources that might not align politically with you too for an alternate POV. Prevents “surprises”. Because as someone with no love lost on either party the election results were not a surprise - you just have to look across all sources, not just the ones that tell you what you want to hear.


You're most welcome to "link to others" so we can discuss their specific critiques.

The "aggregate the polls" approach appears to have called 48/50 races correctly, so I'm fairly comfortable with it.


They're referring to https://auntymuriel.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/medusa.jpg?w...

This is the part where we all laugh and the credits roll out

Someone not knowing the two can't make the connection. Can AI?


anyone agreeing with the parent may find earplugs effective for focus in short (4 hour span) periods of work. After 6+ it gets eerily uncomfortable.


gluten free, too




does this flow effect work with the water analogy of electricity?


I had to google it. It seems like it's at least plausible that it might: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/nl070935e


The circulator[1] is an analogous component in rf, it send the incident power from any port down to the next port, so you can take one port to be the bidirectional connection, and it splits the signal into transmit and receive connections.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circulator


Just realized if it did this would make a very simple rectifier. I guess you could test it by putting ends of a wire with a galvanometer on it to different parts of an antenna and see if you get a current.


This relies on inertia so probably not.


Inductance is similar to inertia in the water model of electricity.


Yes, but it's not directional. You don't get to make a T-joint of three coils and have the current follow the top bar as it's a straight line.


Diodes don't work based on inductance.


Diodes would be something along the lines of a check valve.


> “I was being bombarded with these conspiracy theories... about how it’ll go to $X,000...


It doesn't matter that there's a barrier in-between if you're breathing the same air. We knew early that IR detection was more effective.

Oblivious compliance. People prefer the option that looks effective. Besides, it's cheaper.


Do you have a cite for that? Temperature worked fabulously to stop SARS-COV-1 but I was under the impression that it was fairly ineffective for SARS-COV-2. Giving every school a few thermometers would have been a lot cheaper than installing plexi glass.



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