It is clear that there is a selection bias. Suppose there are 3 heads in a row, HHH, and we are going to estimate the probability of the next coin to be H. But we do it this way: if the outcome is H you don't count that as a H, a success, instead we proceed to make another estimation replacing HHHH as the initial condition. Since you don't count correctly the number of successes, this way of estimating probabilities constitutes a biased estimator of the real probability.

It is not THAT clear. Hence that multiple other papers, as the article says, made mistakes.

At first sight I thought that the microphone was an spermatozoon mad with joy stirred up by Plutarch's quotation. Unfortunately that was only an illusion and life is not such exciting today.

To force to your mind to work creatively you must feed your mind with lots of examples and experiences. And the suggested way to accelerate the learning process is via showing off corner cases.

Innovation places us in a field in which the corner cases are unknown unknowns, his workshop is about an strategy to detect and anticipate corner cases in uncharted territories. That amounts to finding the fount of creativity, and that is not an easy feat.

Edited n+1 times for learning English.