If BYD and China are dominant in the EV (hardware) war, then the long term strategic play is to dominate the FSD (software) war. Whether or not this is a bold strategy or massive mistake is yet to be determined.
The only deployed fully autonomous passenger vehicles are robotaxis with lots of sensors operating is carefully managed service areas. There is no "FSD war."
This is actually reinforcement to my point. Getting real wold momentum on FSD software is exactly what Elon wants. He wants to be ahead in this technology curve before anyone else attempts to scale it outside of taxis.
What he "wants" is the hype to continue to prop up a pumped share price that looks increasingly vulnerable, nevermind his own experts saying it is financially incoherent.
they already hobbled themselves by limiting their fsd to computer vision, no chance of dominating the fsd market when the competitors are already level with or superior.
I agree that a purely visual approach is weaker, however the new vehicles are expected to have many more cameras and using structured lighting to identify objects in near realtime. I won't count it out as that is an order of magnitude cheaper to scale if it becomes approved.
BYD already have a FSD competitor. It's not that clear that Tesla will win that one.
Here's some funky footage of a driverless thing mucking around on a race track https://youtu.be/J_c2gsxImjA?t=53 . Not sure how genuine it is but they are definitely developing stuff. Also re their B system:
>It has been tested on real roads for more than a year and has driven across China with no human intervention in testing using a BYD Denza sedan.
Compare to Musk:
>One of the more wild claims Elon Musk has made — regarding Tesla, that is — was back in 2016 when he said a self-driving Tesla would be able to go from Los Angeles to New York City “in ~2 years” (in early 2018)
You're assuming that the media is selecting what news they're reporting based on how they want you to think. Maybe they're just reporting something that they believe people would be interested in.
The question doesn't make sense imo because it, meaning neural network or other ML computer vision classification, doesn't have a mechanism to be trustworthy. It's just looking for shortcuts with predictive power, it's not reasoning, doesn't have a world model, it's just an equation that mostly works, etc, all the stuff we know about ML. It's not just about validation set performance, you could change the lighting or some camera feature or something, have some unusual mole shape, and suddenly get completely different performance. It can't be "trusted" the way a person can, even if they are less accurate.
These limitations are often acceptable but I think as long as it works how it does, denying someone a person looking at them in favor of a statistical stereotype should be the last thing we do.
I can see if this was in a third world country and the alternative was nothing, but in the developed world the alternative is less profit or fewer administrators. We should strongly reject outsourcing the actual medical care part of healthcare to AI as an efficiency measure.
I understood that you don't believe it can be made reliable. But my question was: what if it were?
Let me put it differently. Suppose I don't tell you it's ML. It's a machine that you don't know how it works, but I let you do all the tests you want, and turns out they're great. Would you then still be against it?
Yes, we have laws. When should the law intrude on the private transaction of two parties? Typically, the law holds both parties to their contractual agreement. If those two parties have contracted to abide by the output of an algorithm, can the law distinguish good faith manipulation of algorithmic inputs to benefit oneself from bad faith manipulation of algorithmic inputs to benefit oneself? Given that the whole point of a smart contract is to encode the terms of the agreement as code, when is it appropriate to step in and alter that agreement?
Because if you are trying to draw samples from a hypersphere via rejection sampling from samples of the hypercube, your sampling efficiency will go down exponentially with dimensionality. A smaller and smaller percentage of your samples will go unrejected as dimensionality grows
Hmmm I don't think that's how it works. If you're trying to estimate the ratio of the volume between A and B and B is contained in A, and you randomly sample from A, the probability that the sample also belongs to B is smaller the smaller the B/A ratio, yes that's the point of the methodology. It's not less "efficient", every single data point contributes to the estimate the same way.
If the ratio B/A is 1/1 and you sample 1M times, 100k of the samples will also be contained in B. Are you saying that the other 900k somehow go unused?!
If the ratio B/A is 1/100, and you sample the same number of times, only 10k of the samples will be contained in B. Are you saying that's less "efficient"? You need both the numerator and the denominator!
What is the ratio B/A is 1/100 and you'd say that the methodology is very inefficient here, and I tell you that actually we're estimating the ratio A/B. Does it become very efficient? Surely it can't change as the two ratios arent independent.
No, I think your comment misses the point (or I missed the point of your comment).
Sorry, yes, you did miss the point. Specifically for the case of estimating volume, you just need enough points interior to the hypersphere to get good sampling statistics (which would become a problem in and of itself, by the way, at sufficient dimensionality). But estimating volume (or pi) is normally just used as a pedagogical example of rejection sampling, it’s not (usually) what people actually use the technique for. Typically its used to draw samples from one distribution, X, that is notionally hard to draw from, by instead drawing from Y. The sphere case is just an example (its actually easy to draw from a hypersphere without rejection sampling) - but if you did try to use rejection sampling specifically, it would take you a long time and lots of compute resources to generate those samples (in high dimensions)
(note: I am going to be imprecise here by describing the volume of the unit hypersphere, when such a concept does not exist, as the hypersphere only describes the surface of such a construct. It is more correct to call it the volume of the n-ball, or the volume enclosed by the unit hypersphere, but I'm not going to use that terminology throughout, in the interest of expediency.)
> What is the ratio B/A is 1/100 and you'd say that the methodology is very inefficient here, and I tell you that actually we're estimating the ratio A/B. Does it become very efficient? Surely it can't change as the two ratios arent independent.
That's exactly it, though. Rejection sampling is not primarily used to estimate ratios, but rather to draw points from a distribution by sampling a broader distribution and then rejecting points that don't satisfy some criteria. If you're attempting to sample the unit hypersphere by picking N points between 0 and 1, and rejecting any sets where sum(x_i^2) > 1, then you're going to be throwing away most of your data points in the process.
Going back to the topic of volume ratio estimation, though: both of you are underestimating quite how quickly the volume drops off. The unit hypersphere's volume decreases super-exponentially (there's a factorial in the denominator!), so if you're dealing with a mere 50 dimensions, you're looking at a ratio of 10^-13 [0]. In that regime, adding an extra dimension shrinks that volume by a factor of about 3; by the time you get to 100, that factor increases to 4.
If you're still only sampling a million points, chances are very good that you're going to decide that the ratio is 0. In order to accurately estimate the ratio, you need progressively more and more samples just to compensate for a slight increase in dimension.
I'd expect it to be much more efficient to use the change-of-coordinates approach the article also mentions, although I have personally never thought about a coordinate system well-suited to the 50-dimensional hypersphere. Probably 49 angles and a radius that's basically almost always 1, and a weird Jacobian that I don't want to compute by hand?
Also, as I mentioned, using rejection sampling to estimate the value of pi is a cute exercise but quite useless in practice compared to any of the more direct methods. If you sample a million points in the unit square, you'll end up with 3.142 +/- 0.0016. Meanwhile, if you use the fourth continued fraction for pi (355/113), you already have 3.141592(9)... for far less computation.
My point is that we're not just talking about A/B of 100, but rather A/B of 10000000000000 or more. If you're inverting the ratio we're estimating, then instead of estimating the value at 0, we're estimating it at infinity (or, okay, if you want to use Laplace smoothing, then a million, which is far too low).
There are situations where you would use rejection sampling because generating 100x more random numbers is much cheaper than doing the complex calculations required to accurately model the space in question. Maybe 50 dimensions (and the 13 orders of magnitude difference) isn't big enough to raise those concerns. If we instead talk about 100 dimensions, then we're dealing with a difference of 40 orders of magnitude, and if you tell me that still doesn't matter, then I don't know what to say.
You haven't addressed my question at all. If you think estimating 1e-1000 is a problem, then estimating 1e+1000 shouldn't be. But one is just the inverse of the other. What's the problem with this argument, you haven't answered it at all.
> If you think estimating 1e-1000 is a problem, then estimating 1e+1000 shouldn't be.
They're both problems. If you want to estimate 1e1000 via sampling individual points, then you need at least that order of magnitude of samples. If all of your data points fall in one class, then it doesn't matter what you're trying to calculate from that.
As I said: "If you're inverting the ratio we're estimating, then instead of estimating the value at 0, we're estimating it at infinity (or, okay, if you want to use Laplace smoothing, then a million, which is far too low)."
First off, you didn't answer my question which to restate is: if the ratio is 1/2, how many samples do you need.
Second, your claim that it depends on dimension is wrong, given the ratio of sets, dimension doesn't matter. If the ratio is 1/2 then you'll reject one half of the times regardless of dimension, and so by your own argument it's "very efficient"
> First off, you didn't answer my question which to restate is: if the ratio is 1/2, how many samples do you need.
Are we just trying to estimate the ratio? To what desired accuracy? If you have 100 samples and find that 50 points landed in your smaller set, okay, you can be 95% sure that the ratio is between 40% and 60%. That's not a very good estimate. If you want to drive those error bars down by 2x, you need 4x as many samples.
> Second, your claim that it depends on dimension is wrong, given the ratio of sets, dimension doesn't matter. If the ratio is 1/2 then you'll reject one half of the times regardless of dimension, and so by your own argument it's "very efficient"
When your sets in question are the volume enclosed by the n-dimensional unit hypersphere and the volume enclosed by the corresponding hypercube, which is what I assume we've been discussing this whole time, you do not get to pick what your ratio is between your sets for a given choice of n. If you're dealing with a 3-dimensional unit sphere and picking three random values uniformly between 0 and 1 (i.e. constrained to the positive octant), you will land within the hypersphere with probability pi/6 (close to your one-half ratio). You can't decide "okay now my ratio is 99%" unless you change how you draw your samples.
You can draw however many samples you want from the 100-dimensional unit hypercube to estimate the volume of the 100-dimensional unit hypersphere, and all you'll ever get is "the ratio is somewhere between 0 and some very small number, with X% probability".
Either way, as I have said multiple times, you are completely missing the point of rejection sampling by overindexing on the toy example that I explicitly stated is not a good use of rejection sampling.
> Are we just trying to estimate the ratio? To what desired accuracy?
Exactly. Number of samples depends on volume ratio and accuracy. It depends on dimension only through these two numbers. You got there in the end, proud of you.
You continue to miss the point. In this specific context, volume ratio scales super-exponentially with dimension, and unless you're willing to have accuracy also drop super-exponentially (as in, go very very quickly to zero), then you are wasting your time by trying to perform rejection sampling in a context where you are statistically never going to hit the target set.
Do you know how to program? It’s super easy to write a very simple rejection-based program to estimate the volume of a hypersphere (you can do it in <10 lines with numpy). Try it yourself for dimensionality 50 and see how long it takes before the estimate rises above precisely 0
Read my conversation with the other person. If you sample N times you'll be able to put a bound on the ratio, and that is the same regardless of dimension. To your example: if the ratio between sets in D=50 is 1e-50 and you ask how long it takes that your estimate bound doesn't contain zero, that will take a long time. Now if I ask you to estimate the ratio between the 2D circle and the 2D square with 50 decimal place, it will take the same time. Therefore, dimension doesn't enter here. This is a general property of Monte Carlo.
