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So far only Nasdaq has changed its rules and will allow fast entry in 15 trading days. S&P has not changed its rules, not yet at least. Total indexed capital of Nasdaq is 1.4T vs 16T in the S&P500. Stated reason for fast tracking is that the indices are supposed to be a broad representation of the market, and leaving a 2T company out would be a significant tracking error.

I do agree that the optics of this aren’t great, and it’s rather easy to be cynical about motives.


SpaceX reuses its boosters 20+ times. Surely the depreciation is tiny when compared to the revenue of 60M+ per launch?

The entire space launch market is about $20B with multiple competitors in 2025. And by the most generous estimates it is going to be $80B by 2035. They can reuse the rockets as much as they like, the company isn’t worth $1.7T.

3x growth in ten years is the “most generous” estimate?

Yes because outside Starlink and govt contracts, there isn’t that massive of a demand growth in the sector. There a limit to how many satellites can be in orbit at a time and land based telecom infrastructure makes it so that satellite based infra isn’t necessary unless you’re in remote areas.

Starlink is already most of the revenue.

What's the point of the except?

The main problem is the AI stuff.


How can you say “The company isn’t worth X”? Isn’t the company worth exactly as much as people are willing to pay for its shares?

I don’t personally think Google is worth $4T but the share price says otherwise.


You’re comparing a publicly traded company where the supply demand economics have established a price to a company whose financials are not public, and is valuing itself at $1.7T and forcing everyone’s 401Ks and pension funds to fund it. Not the same thing.

>forcing everyone’s 401Ks and pension funds to fund it.

Source?



The source links in that website (which looks like clickbait) do not support your claim.

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds...

> S&P is reportedly considering a fast entry rule change to its flagship index, though it has not yet been approved, and details are scant.

> FTSE Russell is also considering a fast entry rule for its suite of US market indexes and is in a consultation period as of early April 2026.

Only Nasdaq 100 has changed its rules, but Nasdaq 100 is not (and should not be) in most retirement funds.


If 1/3 having changed rules and 2/3 considering changing the rules isn’t evidence enough then not really much to discuss here.

When someone says that it usually means they believe the price is bound to drop.

> Isn’t the company worth exactly as much as people are willing to pay for its shares?

Really? We're still making claims like this in the year of our Lord 2026? People in the markets today are not predicting the real value of a company, they're gambling that the various political and financial machinations from people like Elon Musk will increase the share price enough that they can sell at a profit. The value of shares like Tesla are utterly disconnected from the value of the underlying business.


They also have to replace 20%+ of their satellite network every year.

why is that ?

They are low earth orbit satellites. Generally, the lower the orbit, the faster they decay. You could also argue that this is a benefit in that they gain updated technology with each replacement.

> You could also argue that this is a benefit in that they gain updated technology with each replacement.

No, having the option to replace technology at your leisure would be a benefit. Being forced to replace your technology because it's destined to become aerosolized aluminum in less than five years is a detriment.


Planned obsolescence really only works well if someone else is paying.

The operational lifetime of their satellites is about 5 years.

Because they fall back to the ground…

No, the burn up in the atmosphere. Burning metals being added to the oxygen you breathe.

They fall back towards the ground... Happy now?

low earth orbit

because of gravity

More because of drag

Depreciation isn't the only thing that matters. R&D, manufacturing, maintenance, fuel, launch, support staff, and I'm sure there are countless others.

I'm not saying they aren't profitable. I don't know, but it's definitely not a given.


They did report FCF before xai and also invested at least $1B before they merged xai

Given that it's one Musk company giving a mountain of money to another, and the only numbers floating around regarding SpaceX seem like marketing fluff, I don't think any meaningful conclusions can be reached until we get some real numbers giving a full look at the finances.

What about the R&D costs of blowing up vehicle after vehicle?

They have over 300 falcon 9 launches in a row now, just in case you’re not caught up on the latest

C'mon, you know they're talking about Starship.

It's less than the yearly cost of ground stations (just under 1 million/year per installation)

5 million over 5 years capex+opex. Mostly opex

It's also a troll post


What exactly has Elon done to limit your freedom? For me, Elon has increased my freedom because I can read about certain viewpoints that were previously censored on Twitter.


If we step back from the anecdotal arguments in this thread and look at the actual metrics and independent studies, the "pre-Musk vs. post-Musk" reality is pretty unambiguous.

Regarding government censorship, Twitter's pre-Musk transparency reports consistently showed them complying with roughly half of government takedown requests, and they frequently fought overly broad demands in court. Under Musk, data compiled by Rest of World showed that compliance jumped to over 80% (specifically 83% in his first six months), heavily favoring takedown requests from authoritarian-leaning governments.

On the topic of algorithmic amplification, y'all argue about whether boosting one side equals censoring the other. Setting the semantics aside, a 2023 Nature study found that X's "For You" algorithm demonstrably amplifies conservative content and steers users toward conservative accounts at a much higher rate than a chronological feed, while actively demoting traditional media.

As for moderation and toxicity, the claim that discussing certain topics would automatically get you banned usually ignored that it was generally the manner of the discussion (ie targeted harassment) rather than the topics themselves that triggered enforcement pre-Musk. Post-acquisition, a 2025 PLOS One audit found that measurable hate speech increased by roughly 50%, alongside a significant spike in user engagement with that specific content.

Finally, there's the issue of transparency itself. We used to get highly detailed, bi-annual reports that tracked exact volumes of rule enforcement. Those were abruptly paused, and the reports that eventually resumed are heavily stripped down, omitting comprehensive metrics on things like spam and platform manipulation.

TL;DR: The data suggests that while you are less likely to get banned by US-centric moderation for controversial cultural takes, the platform is demonstrably more compliant with state-sponsored censorship, less transparent about its operations, and algorithmically tuned to amplify right-leaning content.


I don’t think your argument holds, or at least, there is missing data. We have a different administration now, and I suspect it significantly reduced the number takedown requests, maybe by an order of magnitude. I would expect that the remaining requests are for unambiguous legal issues and therefore have a higher rate of granting them.


You are being, and have been, played. What is happening to the left now is exactly what you thought was happening to the right before Elon.


Bro. He's still censoring viewpoints. He's also boosting his ideological viewpoints, which diminishes the reach of everything else.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-elon-musk-uses-his...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/04/23/business/elon...


[flagged]


I don't even see the option to flag a users post. is it some HN elite option?


It's not available to new users (I think there is a "karma" threshold but not sure about the exact number) and you need to to a direct link to the comment (e.g. click the time in the comment header) to see the option.


He ran DOGE and illegally destroyed science and arts funding across the US government. [0] He continues to interfere in elections, committing what is likely fraud. He silences viewpoints that disagree with him on twitter and routinely interferes with grok’s training to promote his own viewpoints.

Oh and he begged to visit Epstein’s child sex slavery island. [2]

I get that your moral compass might not be fully functional, but I draw the line at fascism, treason, and pedophilia.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Effic...

[1] https://www.thebulwark.com/p/yes-elon-musk-vote-buying-is-ag...

[2] https://people.com/emails-reveal-that-elon-musk-asked-jeffre...


Which viewpoints?


I mean any conservative view points? Immigration, DEI policies, euthanasia, pro life, gender roles, trans sexuality..

Discuss any of these on Twitter would get you banned, until Musk took over. It still does on many left leaning platforms, including Youtube, Twitch, BlueSky, etc.

HN is the only platform I've participated in that tends to allow opposing view points (albeit more left leaning).

If EFF wants to declare that it's now a Left leaning activist entity and doesn't like to engage wit other people, that's fine, I'd rather they just say that instead and be honest.


You can discuss all of those things just fine, both now and then. I have, and never got banned for any of them.

The problem is online/MAGA conservatives don't want to discuss those things. I've never talked to any online conservative who had anything new or interesting to say about any of those things.


And in soviet Russia you can criticize the government all you want --- as long as you're criticizing the American government.


“A man can never be a woman” and “ok dude” got people banned on old Twitter.


Well the first is just plain old bog-standard bigotry. What was the "ok dude" in response to?


No ‘a man can never be a woman’ is a fact and mainstream view. Disliking your sex isn't an innate characteristic and you have no right to force others to believe your illusion or participate in your gender performance.

More to the point you just claimed discussion of these matters wasn’t ever suppressed and then attempted to suppress discussion of them by claiming this was bigoted.


You're denying the existence of a marginalized group and claiming, "there is no bigotry here!" You see that that is risible, right?


People with gender dysphoria exist. THey are not marginalised: they have the same rights as every other person has. It is not bigotry to not participate in their gender performance, because gender performance is not an innate characteristic, as already mentioned to you in the comment you're replying to.


> So sometimes when some Junior dev discovers Rust and they get really obnoxious with their evangelicalism it can be very off putting. Really not sure how to solve it. It is good when people get excited about a language. It just can be very annoying for everyone else sometimes.

This rings very true, and I've actually disadvantaged myself somewhat here. I was involved in projects that made very dubious decisions to rewrite large systems in Rust. This caused me to actively stay away from the language, and stick to C++, investing lots of time in overcoming its shortcomings.

Now years later, I started with Rust in a new project. And I must say, I like the language, I really like the tools, and I like the ecosystem. On some dimension I wish I would have done this sooner (but on the other hand, I think I have a better justification of "why Rust" now).


How long ago was that? I doubt it was the v14 software. The software has become scary good in the last few weeks, in my own subjective experience.


This exact sentence (minus the specific version) is claimed every single week.

No, you do not "become scary good" every single week the past 10 years and yet still not be able to drive coast to coast all by itself (which Elon promised it would do a decade ago)

You are just human and bad at evaluating it. You might even be experiencing literal statistical noise.


I have not been proclaiming scary good every week for the last 10 years. In fact, I have cancelled my subscription at least two times, once on v13 and once on v14, with the reason ‘not good enough yet.’ I am telling you that for me personally it has crossed a threshold very recently.


It certainly wasn't in the past few weeks, but I've been hearing about how good it's gotten for years. Certainly not planning to pay to find out if it's true now, but I'll give it another try next free trial!


Make sure you are on AI4 hardware when you do. If you buy FSD on AI3 you’ll be limited to v13, which is is terrible. I have used both and they are in different leagues altogether.


Tesla have recently started introducing unsupervised cars cars as well.


Yes, they moved the "safety driver" into a chase car.

And the results speak for themselves.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8623960/tesla-tsla-robotaxi-c...


And seemingly only along one stretch of road? Like, this happened in Dublin in 2018: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/driverles... - going up and down a stretch of road is about as easy as it gets.

> Mr Keegan said he was “pretty confident” that in “the next five to 10 years” driverless vehicles would “make a major contribution in terms of sustainable transport” on Dublin’s streets.

As always, people were overoptimistic back then, too. There are currently no driverless vehicles in Dublin at all, with none expected anytime soon unless you count the metro system (strictly speaking driverless, but clearly not what he was talking about).


A bus crashing into a stationary Tesla counts as a crash for Tesla? What in the world is this metric?


Ask Musk why he refuses to provide details of accidents so we can make a judgment.

Tesla’s own Vehicle Safety Report claims that the average US driver experiences a minor collision every 229,000 miles, meaning the robotaxi fleet is crashing four times more often even by the company’s own benchmark.

https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/tesla-robotaxis-reporti...


I don't see how we could know the rate of US driver minor collisions like that. No way most people reporting 1-4mph "collisions" with things like this.


You don't have to know. You can fully remove the few "minor" accidents (that a self driving car shouldn't be doing ever anyway) and the Tesla still comes out worse than a statistical bucket that includes a staggering number of people who are currently driving drunk or high or reading a book

The car cannot be drunk or high. It can't be sleepy. It can't be distracted. It can't be worse at driving than any of the other cars. It can't get road rage. So why is it running into a stationary object at 17mph?

Worse, it's very very easy to take a human that crashes a lot and say "You actually shouldn't be on the road anymore" or at least their insurance becomes expensive. The system in all of these cars is identical. If one is hitting parked objects at 17mph, they would almost all do it.


> It stops making sense the second you ask how you’d dissipate the heat any GPU would create.

The answer, as you surmised, is indeed radiators.


On the last day of the year, I am taking a few minutes to linger on this. At face value, most would agree with this, myself included. But I think we can dive one layer deeper. There are different schools of thoughts whether mankind is inherently good or evil. Over the years, I have become pretty firm believer that every person has the innate capacity for both good and evil, and the outcome is determined by both character and circumstances. Solzhenitsyn famously wrote (quote by Gemini):

"The line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either—but right through every human heart—and through all human hearts. This line shifts. Inside us, it oscillates with the years. And even within hearts overwhelmed by evil, one small bridgehead of good is retained. And even in the best of all hearts, there remains … an unuprooted small corner of evil."

If you subscribe to this, then a weapons system can also be a force for good, if used by an entity for the purpose of "peace through strength". The strength keeps our innate capability for evil in check, as the consequences for evil would be guaranteed. A case in point is the MAD doctrine for nuclear weapons which has prevented a world war for the last 80 years.

I'd appreciate philosophical replies. Am I wrong, either in a detail or at the core of the argument? Are there additional layers? I would like to kindly ask to keep replies away from views on the specific players in this specific press release. We'd just be reiterating our positions without convincing anyone.

(edit: grammar, slight rewording)


We are also lucky a miscalculation didn’t occur during the Cold War resulting in millions of nuked folks. But, not sure what the alternative is. Best idea I’ve heard is for everyone to stop reproducing.


I totally understand the need for weapons. It is just makes me sad.

And I think Solzhenitsyn is wrong. There are psychopathic people that have no good in their hearts. Sure, with the right upbringing that could be kind and good but at a given moment they are what they are... psychopaths.


More to the point, "technology is neither good, nor bad, nor neutral, it just exists". Ultimately all tools can be used for good or bad purposes and what matters is the people who wield them.

This is separate from the argument over whether MAD is philosophically good. MAD is not an argument about technology. "Peace through strength" does indeed require the occasional display of strength, to maintain deterrence. Good and bad (morals) are not the right frame to understand deterrence, rather emotions: fear, confidence, and security.

Solzhenitsyn can be read as either a humanist or an ethicist: either the bridgehead of good is sufficient to redeem everyone from war and morality demands pacifism, or all military doctrines must be submitted to independent review to check that we do not give the "unuprooted small corner of evil" oxygen. Crucially, these are both judgements about ourselves and not about the foes who seek to destroy us, who indeed consider themselves to have "the best of all hearts". In this sense, Solzhenitsyn contributes to the cycle of violence: if both sides are ethicists, and their ethical councils have different conclusions, the result is not just fundamentalism but a fundamentalism justified by ethical review.

Fear, anger, disgust are the ultimate drivers of conflict. Can we conquer them? Of course not, they are the base emotions, part of being human. But can there be a better way of handling them in geopolitics? Yes - if leaders are focused on helping not just themselves feel safe, but their enemies as well. This is the higher level beyond MAD - not mutual fear, but mutual security. This is why USAID was great foreign policy and cheap for its benefits. This is why weapons are sold to allies despite the fact that their interests may not be fully aligned with ours. Weapons are fundamental to security, which at the end of the day is a feeling and not a guarantee against attack or repercussions from an attack, and these feelings of security are what reduces the incidence and frequence of war.


Snarky comment that adds nothing to the conversation.


Tell that to the parent, I'm the one trying to make actionable suggestions out here.


It’s sad you are getting downvoted for simply expressing what seems to be a genuine opinion.


Because it's an extremely subjective, extremely superficial statement that does more FUD than it explains.


I am getting tired of participating in this community for many reasons, but this specific reason is one of the most tiring ones.

But there's seemingly nowhere else to go, but maybe small Discord servers where you can meet people and share honest opinions that are real and agree to disagree without penalty.

Everyone should feel free to express harmless opinions.

Edit: Whoever downvoted me for this comment is proving my point.

Edit (for adastra22): I'm not sure that me providing a list of specific modifications to Rust syntax is meaningful to anyone anyway. I'm just a nobody. And it should be OK for people to express personal opinions that hint towards something being wrong without also being required to solve the problem. That's just life.


I didn’t downvote you, but I can see why your original unedited comment was downvoted. It provided no actionable objections, e.g. no examples.


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