I assume that he means "rather than pushing up each individual container for a project, it could take something like a compose file over a list of underlying containers, and push them all up to the endpoint."
That's an interesting idea. I don't think you can create a subcommand/plugin for compose but creating a 'docker composepussh' command that parses the compose file and runs 'docker pussh' should be possible.
My plan is to integrate Unregistry in Uncloud as the next step to make the build/deploy flow super simple and smooth. Check out Uncloud (link in the original post), it uses Compose as well.
They have a lot of ways they could’ve built trust without a full negative burden: which of them, if any, are they doing?
Open sourcing of their watch word and recording features specifically, so people can self-verify it does what it says and that it’s not doing sketchy things?
Hardware lights such that any record functionality past the watch words is visible and verifiable by the end user and it can’t record when not lit?
Local streaming and auditable downloads of the last N hours of input as heard by amazon after watchwords, so you can check for misrecordings and also compare “intended usage” times to observed times, such that you can see that you and Amazon get the same stuff?
If you really wanna go all out, putting in their TOS protections like explicit no-train permissions on passing utterances without intent, or adding an SLA into their subscription to refund subscription and legal costs and to provide explicit legal cause of action, if they were recording when they said they weren’t?
If you explicitly want to promote trust, there are actually a ton of ways to do it, one of them isn’t “remove even more of your existing privacy guardrails”.
On the first two, if you already think they're blatantly lying about functionality, why would you think the software in the device is the same as the source you got, or that it can't record with the light off?
Aspersions aside, the content’s actually typically pretty involved and has a lot to speak for itself, it’s not low-effort content that one would typically associate with AI.
Laid bare, it’s generally a variety comedy show of a human host and AI riffing off each other, the AI and the chat arguing and counter-roasting each other with human mediation to either double down or steer discussions or roasts in more interesting directions, a platform for guest interviews and collaborations with other streamers, and a showcase of AI bots which were coded up by the stream’s creator to play a surprising variety of games. There’s a lot to like, and you don’t need to be on “that bit of the bell curve” to enjoy a skilled entertainer putting new tools to enjoyable use.
I think this optimism is extremely misplaced, as I think things are likely to get substantially less evenly distributed. It seems more likely we'll have a future where indies more successfully drown each other out in a sea of noise, while major studios continue to enjoy massive moats of content and marketing.
On the content front, studios have benefited massively by selling sure bets in a sea of noise: of the top 10 box office films of 2024, there isn't a single original IP, every single film is either an adaptation or sequel to prior work made long ago. [1]. I view this as part of a broader "flight towards quality" pattern in the internet age - even if there's tons of great content online (orders of magnitude more), the viewing public still ultimately values both studio curation and IP familiarity. This goes beyond the films themselves: the studio IP rights moat includes the access to famous big-name actors that fill seats, the IP rights to use their likeness, and access to their personal platforms to push the film, all of which these studios control. Even if indies can generate "a person" or "a movie", the inability to legally generate "specific people that the public knows and likes without their permission" or "specific movies set in universes they know and care about" represents moat that isn't leaving studio's hands in a world of widespread AI.
Separate from IP rights, it also assumes a hyper-specific model of how AI specialization and use will look if it's widely available. For example, even assuming AI that can generate anything you ask for, it's likely that people will continue valuing significant sound, music, and visual post-processing to augment end-state AI generations to better match and personalize a final vision differentiated from the models themselves. This means labor costs, which indies at scale would continue to lack access to. This also assumes a model of the world where AI becomes a reducer of specialization, which isn't guaranteed: even assuming superhuman production capabilities by AI, such that there is no longer any individual human input on some aspect of the film, someone has to point the superhuman AI in productive directions that map to somewhere good in the quality spectrum, and it's likely that there will be significant differentiation in human skill at this task across different domains, as one can think of the superhuman AI as a tool being consumed by a skilled collaborator, even if the AI is doing most of the work. In the event that this is the case, studios can and will continue having much bigger labor budgets to continue to differentiate themselves on quality compared to indies trying to DIY this process.
And lastly, marketing is still king. About half of a modern big-budget picture's budget gets spent on the marketing today, only the other half goes towards making the actual film. Even if state-of-the-art Hollywood grade AI means anyone can produce a shot-for-shot reproduction of any current Hollywood film, ultimately, people need to find the content in order to watch it, and even in a world with widely available AI, it's the indie's marketing budget of ~$0 dollars, versus the major studio's marketing budget of $50,000,000-$200,000,000. I would happily continue betting against indies winning this fight, especially when the low end of this market, which is already oversaturated and hard to meaningfully stand out in, is drowned out in an order of magnitude more noise from low-end AI creators flooding the space with slop.
One of the best sonic games ever made, sonic mania, wasn’t made in-house by sonic team, but a handful of fans making fanwork.
Sega’s choice to treat their fanwork seriously and make them second-party developers rather than shutting them down was not only an immeasurably good thing for both the project and its fans, but a measurably, handsomely profitable move for Sega.
The number of ports of Doom that were made by fans and only licensed after the work was done so it could be sold is surprisingly high. Randy Linden on the SNES is an interesting story (and the very chip he used was also a similar story at its inception).
The author’s right about storytelling from day one, but then immediately throws cold water on the idea by saying it would have been a bad fit for this project.
This feels in error, as the big value of seeking feedback and results early and often on a project is that it forces you to confront whether you’re going to want or be able to tell stories in the space at all. It also gives you a chance to re-kindle waning interests, get feedback on your project by others, and avoid ratholing into something for about 5 years without having to engage with a public.
If a project can’t emotionally bear day one scrutiny, it’s unlikely to fare better five years later when you’ve got a lot of emotions about incompleteness and the feeling your work isn’t relevant anymore tied up in the project.
Thinking Fast and Slow is a result of some 20 years of regularly publishing and talking about those ideas with others.
Most really memorable works fit that same mold if you look carefully. An author spends years, even decades, doing small scale things before one day they put it all together into a big thing.
Comedy specials are the same. Develop material in small scale live with an audience, then create the big thing out of individual pieces that survive the process.
Hamming also talks about this as door open vs door closed researchers in his famous You And Your Research essay
It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is
1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players,
2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and
3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals?
The point to rebut isn’t that Russia is making more, it’s whether they can continue to do so ongoingly before Ukrainian advances, regime falter or economic collapse, US/China step-in, or internal unrest will dramatically weaken or make the current Russian negotiating position untenable.
Love the "first derivative" view! One can take a snapshot of a good day, but if russia really was producing more weapons than USA + NATO for a prolonged time, having also more people, Ukraine would fall a long time ago.
It didn't. As we say in Poland "paper will accept everything". And russia is known for shameless propaganda.
So far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine. At some point, that momentum would have to reverse.
Also, I don't think it's an "until" about China stepping in, they seem to be squarely on Russia's side, just presenting themselves slightly more moderate in public to appear suitable as a mediator. (Maybe sort of like the US does with Israel)
Finally, there is BRICS and some massive shifts of attitude in Africa that seem to work in Russia's favor.
> So far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine.
This is again first derivative. Russia annexed Crimea, sent unofficial troops to Donbas, in 2022 moved rapidly and captured a lot of territory... But later was pushed back severely. And after that, it was gaining terrain in a truly snail pace.
BTW India and China are in an ongoing border conflict, the hostilities don't end there, with India banning many Chinese apps for example. They're nowhere near as united as EU or NATO, it's more like the Visegrád Group.
Do Americans have the technical expertise for a higher curvature? The American primary/secondary schooling system sucks, and most of the top STEM students at university are not interested in working for the military.
Both sides are aching (very badly) for this thing to be over, or at least taken off the stove.
One can quibble further as to the details -- which are a matter of metrics, wildcards, politics. And (as recent events have shown) there are still many cards to be played.
But that's the fundamental equation we need to keep in mind.
Yes, by pushing to reduce the drafting age, which the Ukrainian don't want to, because someone needs to raise families and Ukraine has a way lower population, while Putin brings in north koreans already. And can also escalate by general mobilisation at some point if cornered. So I don't see the outcome as clear.
In an era of massive scale companies and giant projects, it's fascinating how often it feels like most of the success of a project or company's big successes ultimately hinge on the actions of a few key individuals in the right place at the right time - and it never fails to surprise me how little overlap these individuals and the actual actual company org charts share.
Org charts are structured around running the company day to day. The surprising one-off big boosts from an individual are by definition not reflected in an org chart.
> If Sega had held onto that Nvidia stock from then... ChatGPT tells me: "So, if you invested $5 million in Nvidia stock at its IPO in 1999, it would be worth approximately $3 billion today, assuming a current share price of $450 and accounting for stock splits."
why not just either do the math yourself or not include it at all? I don’t find GPT math about realtime prices and such to be even slightly reliable given the; market fluctuations , latest training data & of course the hallucinations.
I just put an asterisk on the number and moved on. Even without the exact number, I was reminded that 5 million in 1999 value for a company who's crown jewel was what, the riva tnt 2, means a serious amount of the company's worth now.
Privilege escalation and Dev Ops rot. Long-lived certs often get compromised when privilege escalations happen and someone gets access to an account or computer that has private keys on it.
One example scenario for privilege escalation: let's say a hacker gets access to one of your employee's or vendor's machines and associated accounts using a zero-day, or phishing, or some other method that goes undetected for some time. The attacker, as part of this attack, successfully gets access to your cert's private keys through some way or another without drawing attention to themselves.
Some time later, your firm makes several security updates. When doing this, you unknowingly patched the attacker out of your network. The attacker is now in a race against time if they want to do something with the cert before it expires, and in this kind of situation, the sooner that cert expires, the better, because the attacker gets less time to do something with it. In a perfect world, the cert expired exactly when they got patched out, but because we're not guaranteed to know if there's an attacker in the first place, "keeping the expiration time as short as is reasonably possible without impacting service reliability" is what things seem to be moving towards, to limit the blast radius during access leaks.
As for Dev Ops rot, speed has a tendency to change requirements in favor of automation. Generally, certificate rotations tend to be a pain point - they break management panes, they take down websites, they throw browser errors, they don't get updated in pipelines, and other woes happen when they expire that demand people keep track of a ton of localized knowledge and deadlines that's easy to lose or forget. However, paradoxically, the longer the time between rotations, the more painful they tend to be, because once rotations are sufficiently fast, it becomes unmanageable to do them manually: demanding speed forces people to build anti-fragile rotation systems. Making the requirement be shorter is in some sense an attempt to encode into managerial culture "you need to automate this", as a bulwark against swapping your certs out being anything besides automated or one click rotations.
Simpler isn’t always preferable: note that the key feature from the consumer perspective in that system is
> you pay no matter what
Meaning if it’s assumed “despite learning little, you still will be able to pay for it”, there’s no longer any motive force towards quality, as your payment is assured. Incentives on taxpayers thereafter who want to minimize their tax burden would therefore be optimizing primarily toward cheapness of the educational process, rather than efficacy and quality of the education which outbound students received.
A vigorous market for education, would suggest you would likely get a variety of nodes along a “costliness to quality” options frontier.
> there’s no longer any motive force towards quality, as your payment is assured
There are many excellent European universities, including ones which have been around for centuries, telling me there are ways to handle your concerns.
> A vigorous market for education
How's that Corinthian Colleges degree working out? Costly and no quality. And exactly the life-crippling outcome we should expect in a 'vigorous market'.
This is non-responsive to my point. Pointing out that paid universities like Corinthian in a grossly distorted market predictably are not very competitive offerings, or that good offerings can nevertheless still exist in heavily distorted markets, both fail to address that
> Current educational incentives caused by how payment is handled in these all-pay systems mean there is very little or no pressure exerted towards promoting an educational arms race towards quality, rather than minimizing cost to service that education.
In a more competitive market, yes, I believe you'd both likely see better European offerings, as well as substantially more compelling American paid offerings than the current batch of cash grab for-profit universities. They exist in their current form almost exclusively because financial lenders in the US have no incentive not to issue loans to students - even if the program is bogus, they are guaranteed re-payment.
This is a commonality shared between both current European offerings (via taxation guaranteeing repayment), and American alternatives (via guaranteed load repayment).
'In a more competitive market' sounds like an article of faith, akin to the No True Scotsman, where there's no definition of what is competitive enough until it meets the proponents' sniff test.
What would a sufficiently competitive market entail? Has it ever existed?
Would it look like modern US K-12 systems where commercial schools prioritize the most profitable students and leave the others to the public schools? Where good marketing beats good education?
How would it not be "heavily distorted" by impositions like Title 9 and other civil rights requirements? By government requirements on the school in order to receive state and federal money? By accreditation requirements?
This question being written as singular suggests to me you’re conflating some combination of education as a concept, education in America, and education in Europe. I see this as muddled thinking, they each have their own issues and their own timetables over which issues can and do exist.
Education history in Europe is actually decently hyperlocal and pretty path dependent for each country during the 19th and 20th century. Talking about it as a monolith is challenging, but there’s a pretty consistent pattern in societies with all-pay taxation-paid schooling that it has clear incentive structures that a school, having been “paid up front“, is not incentivized to put in the work to provide a high quality education, and as the financier of that education is the taxpayer, the pressure is primarily to keep costs low.
As for America, you don’t need much faith to believe that in the US instituting dischargeability would dramatically improve competition and quality in these spaces and the market for education - so yes, this market used to be substantially more competitive and used to exist. Since the 1970s when these laws were passed, student debt and tuition costs have skyrocketed, low quality for-profit university creation skyrocketed, and people have been hobbled with debt for degrees many are never going to pay back. Dischargeability reduces this greatly - it causes financiers to create motive pressure on education to not be a fiscal vampire preying on its students and equip them with meaningful trades and socially useful knowledge.
As for standards and regulations on schools, assuming the public sees fit to fund higher education through government spending, having requirements for a school to receive that government funding seems reasonable, so long as they reflect the desires of the local populace.
Ultimately, all this is a discussion of tradeoffs - I think someone can happily prefer
> everyone gets a free tertiary education paid for by their taxes
I think that it being free and paid-by-all means it’ll have low motive pressure towards quality and therefore be comparably mediocre to free elementary and secondary compulsory education, which even based on your own reckoning seems to be a two-tier system where the public institutions get short shrift - but you seem to care about it being free or less focused on fiscal student outcomes as its own value. It’s a tradeoff.
I care about having actual definitions of what "more competitive market" and "vigorous market for education" means, and gave examples of markets with significant market failures.
Is it even possible to have a vigorous market without strong government oversight?
> define more competitive markets - Is it even possible?
Yes it is, and I am using it in the traditional sense of "Sellers vying to make their offerings more compelling so consumers prefer them to alternatives". A more competitive market has more of the above fighting happening, which can be incentivized in several ways.
Specifically for the US, I already gave a massive truck-sized example of how you can make offerings more competitive: repeal recent 1970s policy changes that make college debt work different than essentially all other debt in being non-dischargeable, and lenders will put pressure by refusing to lend for failschools. This will slash their demand, and survivors will be expected to provide more compelling “when examined actuarially” lifetime student economic outcomes: from the lender’s perspective, the education needs to be expected to at least pay for itself. Schools in a world with dischargeability will therefore make efforts to compete on being able to compellingly show “we are imparting an effective education which equips you to repay what you spent”, and in general will be less able to get away with “we have a strong brand and you’re young and naïve, come study here!”. You can fool an 18 year old, you won’t fool the underwriter.
Specifically for the EU, there’s three approaches I’d like to see considered, the first and last more experimental than the others. It’s a widely agreed upon problem that faculty aren’t incentivized or often even that good at actually teaching, and to a lesser extent they’re also bad at training graduate students, because professorial incentives are to be good at research and grant writing, the thing for which universities pay their salary.
Historically, many universities used a different mode where they kept permanent salaried faculty positions very limited, and rather than charge a tuition, most schools and professors were expected to charge a fee or honorarium they would collect from their individual pupils as the bulk or totality of a professor’s compensation.
We moved away from this because historically teacher compensation was abysmal and we wanted to better support educators in studying - the pendulum swung way too far the other way though, and professors are essentially totally insulated from needing to seriously engage with their student body - they make a salary no matter what and it shows when they teach like it. Returning to a market where teachers’ financial outcomes are at least partially linked to their students explicitly choosing and paying professors chosen fees rather than a tuition which everyone in society pays stochastically, professors are incentivized to competitively vie for being better at training and teaching, because their prosperity and success would be linked to it.
Second, as much criticism as the US model gets for its prices, much of that appears to be driven by administrative bloat and nondischargeability, payment itself is actually really great when dischargeable because it seems prices stay low and this bloat doesn’t happen when it is. It also means a significant fraction of students do try to get into the best school they can and the schools have some incentive to fight to be seen as better - they make their money when students go. The results speak for themselves: something like half to two-thirds of the world’s top 100 universities are all in America.
Last, I’d like to see both European and US models collaborate harder on job and work placement as part of ensuring student success. Colleges being a source of a liberal education without concern for fiscal outcomes can be great, but the pendulum swung too far and these students are essentially thrown out into the world without any expectation of success, because the school no longer has any investment in them. I’d like to see some portion of the fee of education be moved to explicitly garnished wages from placed-into-their-trained field employees - you succeeding would therefore be the university’s success.
I’d therefore like to see taxes slashed on education with moves to paid models comparable to how they existed in the US prior to the 70s, reductions in permanent salaried academic positions with in-kind movements of price of tuition from the school at large to being in baked into professorial fees instead, and moving the funding of education from societal fees to a fixed percentage of post-graduation salaries for some fixed time, to incentivize effective job placement.
The common bailiwick that needs to die is that Europeans don’t pay for college - they do, it’s just compulsory, lifelong, and in a way that is not incentivized to produce quality.
I agree that non-dischargeable debt for education was a horrible change, given the predatory response of the colleges and collusion between the increasing power of the administrative class over the university and the capitalists providing debt funding.
US schools are increasingly extractive because if higher education is indeed necessary then it is economically beneficial for someone to go to college - so long as the result is more profitable than not going to college. If the college charges less than that (or rather, the college + debt industry), then they leave money on the table.
There is little interest in providing quality low-cost education because it is capital intensive, and capitalists want to maximize their profits. As the recent news about rent collusion shows, capital owners will collude to extract more profits.
> the pendulum swung too far
This has been a trope since the 1960s when the right started their culture war against college education as the post-GI bill era meant college was no longer a place primarily for the children of the privileged classes.
That is, be specific - when was the pendulum enough in the other direction that you wouldn't have complained thusly? It seems you like the 1960s, when the right complained about ivory tower academics filling student brains with anti-American nonsense.
> reductions in permanent salaried academic positions
We have that. These are called adjunct professors. "Editorial: U.S. colleges are overusing — and underpaying — adjunct professors" / "The American Assn. of University Professors reports that 70% of faculty are adjunct, most of them without benefits, job security or union representation; they teach more than half of all college courses in the U.S."
They are also poorly paid, exactly as you would expect from an extractive industry.
How low should it be? 20% 10%? But in the 1960s in the era you praise, those numbers were much higher, back when academic positions included significant administrative responsibilities.
If you really want to remove "administrative bloat", remove administrators.
> garnished wages from placed-into-their-trained field employees
Ahh, so you follow the meat widget model of college education. Got a degree in physics but decide to open a chocolate boutique? Sorry, you'll need to pay back your education first.
It costs a lot to go to med school, so those who go often end up in debt, which means they need to get jobs which pay enough to pay back that debt, which means they can't afford to provide medical care to poor communities.
It costs a lot to become a lawyer, which is one of the factors for public defenders are 1) needed, and 2) so overworked.
Besides, we've had similar policies for a long time. I had teachers back in the 1980s whose agreed to debt relief for their teacher education which contingent on being a teacher for enough years.
I've also heard stories about the consequent problems in such a bureaucratized system.
> see both European and US models collaborate harder on job and work placement as part of ensuring student success
In Germany: "After passing through any of the above schools, pupils can start a career with an apprenticeship in a Berufsschule ( vocational school). Berufsschule is normally attended twice a week during a two, three, or three-and-a-half-year apprenticeship; the other days are spent working at a company. This is intended to provide a knowledge of theory and practice. The company is obliged to accept the apprentice on its apprenticeship scheme." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Germany
How is that not exactly what you are asking about?
> The common bailiwick that needs to die is that Europeans don’t pay for college
I'm really tired of people doing the "I'm so clever" comment that "you know that 'free health care' isn't free, right"? That extends to people pointing out that "free college education", and "free K-12 education" and "free school lunches" and "free tampons" and "free condoms" aren't actually free.
Like, duh. It's just name-calling implying I'm ignorant, and therefore you don't need to take me seriously.
Did you know that freeways aren't actually free, but depend on tax funding?
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