It starts by believing that there are distinct human races (which there are not). That alone makes most US Americans racist based on language alone. No (sane) German would nowadays speak of "Rasse" to describe someone with a different skin color.
Then, of course, racism consists of the believe that some races are intrinsically less valuable (in whatever sense) than others. I didn't see Scott Adams voice that part. But I might have missed it or it might have been implied.
But it's important to note that US identity politics of the last couple of decades looks increasingly weird to me as an outsider in any case.
Using "Rasse" as a direct dictionary translation and then saying that it doesn't have the same cultural connotation in another culture is nonsensical. The term "race" means something in the context of American culture, which is due to our troubled history. And Adams' comments are also in the context of that same culture.
But I believe some other countries have their own challenges living up to their nominal multi-ethnic ideals. Surely if I pop open a copy of Der Spiegel and start commenting about the finer points of an immigration policy proposal from an American perspective, I am going to get something wrong.
"It starts by believing that there are distinct human races (which there are not). . That alone makes most US Americans racist based on language alone. "
Sorry, but no.
The scientific community has moved away from 'race' in the biological sense (although there is debate) but the sociological construct of race, which is what we refer to in this context, obviously exists.
When a person 'self identifies' as Black, or Asian or White - that is 'race' - in the 'social construct' sense and it's perfectly accepted and normal - the recognition of that does not make one racist.
Thing is: Industrialization is about repeating manufacturing steps. You don't need to repeat anything for software. Software can be copied arbitrarily for no practical cost.
The idea of automation creating a massive amount of software sounds ridiculous. Why would we need that? More Games? Can only be consumed at the pace of the player. Agents? Can be reused once they fulfill a task sufficently.
We're probably going to see a huge amount of customization where existing software is adapted to a specific use case or user via LLMs, but why would anyone waste energy to re-create the same algorithms over and over again.
In fact this is a counter argument to the point of the article. You're not making 'just more throwaway software' but instead building usable software while standing on the shoulders of existing algo's and libraries.
Well yes. To me industrial software is hardened algorithms, not throwaway slop like the author is arguing. LLMs are very good at porting existing algorithms and as you say it’s about standing on the shoulders of giants. I couldn’t write these from scratch but I can port and harden an algo with basic engineering practices.
I like the article except the premise is wrong - industrial software will be high value and low cost as it will outlive the slop.
The "industrialisation" concept is an analogy to emphasize how the costs of production are plummeting. Don't get hung up pointing out how one aspect of software doesn't match the analogy.
> The "industrialisation" concept is an analogy to emphasize how the costs of production are plummeting. Don't get hung up pointing out how one aspect of software doesn't match the analogy.
Are they, though? I am not aware of any indicators that software costs are precipitously declining. At least as far as I know, we aren't seeing complements of software developers (PMs, sales, other adjacent roles) growing rapidly indicating a corresponding supply increase. We aren't seeing companies like mcirosoft or salesforce or atlassian or any major software company reduce prices due to supply glut.
So what are the indicators (beyond blog posts) this is having a macro effect?
It's the central point of the metaphor. Software is not constrained by the speed of implementation, it's constrained by the cost of maintenance and adaptation to changing requirements.
If that wasn't the case, every piece of software could already be developed arbitrarily quickly by hiring an arbitrary amount of freelancers.
But focusing on production cost is silly. The cost to consumers is what matters. Software is already free or dirt cheap because it can be served at zero marginal cost. There was only a market for cheap industrial clothes because tailor made clothes were expensive. This is not the case in software and that's why this whole industrialization analogy falls apart upon inspection
> You don't need to repeat anything for software. Software can be copied arbitrarily for no practical cost.
...Or so think devs.
People responsible for operating software, as well as people responsible for maintaining it, may have different opinions.
Bugs must be fixed, underlying software/hardware changes and vulnerabilities get discovered, and so versions must be bumped. The surrounding ecosystem changes, and so, even if your particular stack doesn't require new features, it must be adapted (a simple example: your react front breaks because the nginx proxy changed is subdirectory).
The issue is that generation of error-prone content is indeed not very valuable. It can be useful in software engineering, but I'd put it way below the infamous 10x increase in productivity.
Summarizing stuff is probably useful, too, but its usefulness depends on you sitting between many different communication channels and being constantly swamped in input. (Is that why CEOs love it?)
Generally, LLMs are great translators with a (very) lossly compressed knowledge DB attached. I think they're great user Interfaces, and they can help streamline buerocracy (instead of getting rid of it) but they will not help getting down the cost of production of tangible items. They won't solve housing.
My best bet is in medicine. Here, all the areas that LLMs excell at meet. A slightly distopian future cuts the expensive personal doctors and replaces them with (few) nurses and many devices and medicine controlled by a medical agent.
So maybe I am too much a layperson here, but even without any direct therapetutic effects, it is pretty remarkable to have an easily scalable mechanism to get self-replicating agents into tumors, but nowhere else, is it not?
Yes it is amazing! Solid tumors tend to be poorly oxygenated, as they don't have a good network of blood vessels to supply them. The bacteria in these experiments can only live in low oxygen environments, so they will multiply in the tumor and die in any other part of the body they end up in. It's a clever idea, hopefully it will be successful.
Even lay-er person, but maybe the specificity is not that impressive in mice? Perhaps when you scale to more complex animals it is inevitable to see false positives (detrimental effects to healthy cells)?
The answer is type-safety. LLMs produce errors, as do humans. A language with carefully designed semantics and a well-implemented safety checker (or maybe even a proof assistant) will help express much more correct code.
I've had the most success running Claude iteratively with mypy and pytest. But it regularly wants to just delete the tests or get rid of static typing. A language like Haskell augmented with contracts over tests wouldn't allow that. (Except for diverging into a trivial ad-hoc dynamic solution, of course.)
Just another round in the decades-long battle of who owns your device: Industry or state. It's never you, mind you, who owns your device.
The perversion is that you are legally responsible for what happens with your device, but you are unable to prevent others from using it as they wish. An app like this is automation for putting people into jail. Just upload some illegal content and then "detect it". There's literally nothing you can do to defend against this attack, and it will work until it's overused.
Is there a rich caste of doctors or pharmaceutical shareholders that don't need to work and live off these dividends? Or is the system so inefficient that most people in it aren't contributing to actual health care?
If you want to understand where the money is actually going then this Peter Attia Drive podcast episode with Dr. Saum Sutaria is the best high level overview that I've heard. Seriously it's worth listening to and will clear up a lot of the misconceptions that many people have.
Nearly all of it goes to grifters who hang on to the system but don't contribute anything. The obvious ones are all the insurance company employees who don't provide any healthcare, just push paperwork to try to find ways to deny coverage. And all the oberpaid administrators, and of course those multi-million bonuses to all executives involved need to be paid somehow.
If that sounds overly cynical, consider a primary care doctor visit. I get about 15 minutes of the time of a nurse assistant (some searching suggests average wage 50K) and 12 minutes with the doctor (searching suggests average wage of 250K).
So the cost of salaries to the people that actually provided me healthcare that day, is $6 + $24 = $30. Even if we double the salaries of both nurse and doctor, it'd be a $60 visit.
Of course, there's office overhead like rent, utilities, etc.
But I get billed $500 for that visit. SO where is all that money going? Obviously not to the health care professionals.
If we simply removed all the grifters from the system, health care would be quite affordable.
That does not match your earlier statement about administrators or health insurance, though. Or does your primary care doctor work in a big hospital that takes a 400% margin?
I don't know where the majority of the money goes, if you're looking for a precise breakdown.
The point I'm making is that only a very very tiny fraction of the bill goes to the people actually providing healthcare (the nurse and the doctor).
Of course some overhead is inevitable, but there is very clearly a vast amount of waste here that could be eliminated. A nurse + a doctor provide $30 of their time, and $470 of overhead is tacked on to that. That's why healthcare is so insanely expensive in the US.
Doctors are by far the highest paid professional occupation in America. The AMA is the most powerful trade union in history and restricts the number of new doctors, pushing up prices.
Specialist doctors are one of the highest paid professions in almost all countries. There are hardly any jobs more important than those of say a heart surgeon or a neurosurgeon.
Later releases of U8 fixed jumping so it was less pixel-precise. It was still a clumsy mechanic, and the game still felt unfinished. But TBH I had a much worse reaction to Ultima IX, which capped off the series with a giant steaming turd. When I managed to get U9 to run at all after several years, I bounced out after a couple hours of playing. Still the only Ultima game I never finished.
U.S. law. It's pretty obvious that neither Amazon nor Google are good options for serious actors that are not the U.S. government. So if they want to make business outside the U.S., they need to dance around the fact that in the end they bow to the will of Washington.
Then, of course, racism consists of the believe that some races are intrinsically less valuable (in whatever sense) than others. I didn't see Scott Adams voice that part. But I might have missed it or it might have been implied.
But it's important to note that US identity politics of the last couple of decades looks increasingly weird to me as an outsider in any case.
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