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From the report:

> This time, we used the free/consumer versions of ChatGPT, Copilot, Perplexity and Gemini.

IOW, they tested ChatGPT twice (Copilot uses ChatGPT's models) and didn't test Grok (or others).


"In matters of taste, there can be no dispute." -dad


    "Challenge accepted."
      - Internet


This isn’t just a matter of taste. The colors exist to aid in the task of coding. How well they do that is measurable.


Sure, but how well they do that for each individual person is, well, individual...


Asserting that it's impossible or meaningless to measure the quality of a UI is to deny the entire field of UX research. Yes, it's subjective, but you can meaningfully measure the average across many humans. And that's exactly what you should do if you're trying to decide on a UX that will be used by many humans.


Rather than it being meaningless to measure the quality of a UI, I meant that even a UI that tests well generally might not be the best UI for a particular person.


Sure, but if you measure that for a ten thousand people (controversially, ten thousand people that aren't already programmers may be better) you can get a good idea of what is efficient and what isn't.


Maybe, but also maybe not. Ten thousand people giving ten thousand uncorrelated responses is also a possible, not unlikely result of such a test. There's also the question of whether or not your methodology for "measuring" what is effective and what isn't is even possible, let alone sufficient for a definitive conclusion.


I know this is HN, and my instincts tell me posters here predominately are either ICs or managers "in the small" (line level, or at the most at the scale of the OP, in which the company is ~300).

That said, asserting that most meetings are either brainstorming or decision making, is naive. When an organization grows beyond ~100-150 people (Dumbar's Number) the org must metastasize into smaller, "self-contained", orgs that are far less than that number. Once this happens, there is need for meetings that drive accountability, closure, and alignment at scale. For example, monthly or quarterly business reviews.

These are NOT brainstorming meetings or decision-making meetings. They are meetings where leadership drives accountability and alignment by ensuring light is shined (in a way visible cross-org) on the right topics for the biz.


Interesting grammar and spelling (or lack thereof):

> "OpenAI's GPT-3 learns commen-sense knowledge"


I want this, but for MrCool units!


Instead of viewing Dunbar's number as a law, I view it as a sometimes useful, mental model. This article is about how Dunbar's number, as a mental model, breaks down when applied to social media. It makes a strong case for that.

Like all mental models, Dunbar's number is not perfect. However, readers who stop after the introduction of this article may be left thinking it's not useful at all.

I find it very useful in helping leaders in early-stage organizations that are growing fast recognize why the tools & techniques they've used to get to 30-80 people are breaking down as they approach 100-150 people. It helps frame why new tools & techniques for organization and communication are required.


Dunbar told me it grows by approximately tripling. And yes, when you cross a Dunbar bound the old tools and techniques fail in surprising ways.

15

45-50

150

450/500

1500

5000


I've looked a bit at military history and it is interesting to see how consistent they generally are. They'll have a squad of about 10, though the variance can be up to 50%, grouped into companies of ~100, grouped into legions of ~1000, into armies of ~10,000. It wasn't until the 20th Century that armies could become really huge. But the most all-purpose and independent units tended to be in the 100-150 range. Big enough to have enough people to do everything you typically need to do with adequate redundancy. Dunbar's numbers are good enough rules-of-thumb. Some people have better social memories and so will have larger Dunbar number capabilities, just as others have smaller.


In the bc era Chinese armies routinely had 50000 warhorses let alone ground-pounding infantry. Your data is ... incomplete. I would recommend looking a bit more at military history, quite a bit more.


Anecdotal, I have been using 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500,... as the 'break points' where organizational structures need a rethink. So far, it has worked for me. These also match the lines on a log graph.


I wonder if there is a maximum or plateau, beyond which it doesn't matter. is there a difference between 30 million and 300 million, 3 billion to 30 billion?


Ah! We are entering "paperclip factory" territory here, with your question ... :)

> is there a difference between 30 million and 300 million, 3 billion to 30 billion?

In organizational terms? That is, terms of how you would go about organizing or operating ...

... I would humbly only go as far as saying this: I feel there has to be (some) upper limit beyond which any "structure" other than a "self-organizing" structure will collapse or be unmanageable.-

PS. DAOs (which, sadly, seem (?) to be on the wane), were at (some) end of that spectrum, methinks ...


Most, if not all, human structures are self organizing by definition. They simply differ in their stability depending on scale and conditions.

I wonder if the stability of DAOs benefit or are hindered with scale. It may be implementation specific as well.

The Sci-fi part of my brain finds parallels in feudalism, which used delegation and strict hierarchy to deal with the span of control issue.


> It may be implementation specific as well.

I would posit it is. Totally.-

PS. For all we know, the first thing a superhumanly intelligent AGI might do is "forcibly-self-organize" us into a DAO, doing away with the political system. I, for one, would welcome that :)

> The Sci-fi part of my brain finds parallels in feudalism

Elsethread - when talking abou how the Mongols almost overtook Europe - the claim was made that - to a point - part of the reason the hordes had to stop is that "descentralized" (as opposed to centralized clan-leader-ruled) feudal structures made it hard to make advances.-

... so feudalism came up, as a somewhat advanced form of decentralization. Which was neat.-


Yep, I’ve seen the tripling rule in scale-ups and it was brutal as it kicked in, each time. At a certain point we began to anticipate it.


That feels at least directionally correct. And it even goes up from there. An organization with a few thousand people is quite different from a 20-30K one.

I'm not sure about the math and exact numbers (which probably vary depending upon the situation anyway) but it's pretty clear that things are quite different at different scale points.


(And, should it hold, we get to cities: 100K people, 300K people, 1M people, are different cities to live in - qua size ...

... and different organizations, of course.-

Leaves me wondering - among many things - what the "largest qua payroll" organization worldwide might be.-

US Dept. of Defense, Chinese PLA, Indian railways. Walmart, Saudi Aramco come to mind.-


It's complicated by the fact that larger organizations/cities/etc. can be effectively agglomerations of smaller entities with tighter or looser coupling. But, yes, in general.

You can see some of this in your examples.

US DoD is, of course, actually part of the US government but relatively few DoD employees ever really interact with people in other US government branches. Ditto with Walmart store employees and the "mothership."


Entirely good point.-


Voting for a position at the government of my ~3M people city is completely different from voting for a position at the government of my ~300M people country.

Logically, it makes sense that the situation keeps changing. But it still feels weird. How many different kinds of relationship are we capable of?


> How many different kinds of relationship are we capable of?

Kinds? (qualitative) ...

... I think you very much upped the ante there :)

I'd posit a (cheap, easy) guess: Infinite.-

PS. Of course, taking the "cheap" way out in thinking about this of assuming each one-on-one relationship (not to mention one-to-many, and many-to-one and many-to-many, like mentioned upthread) to be a unique "kind", is an easy way out: As many types of relationships as people, because no two people are alike, and so is their relationship. Heck, considering each of the individuals (themselves) involved, might subjectively experience a different relationship, there's even a "two to each pair" pairing of relationship types to participants, to be considered ...

Now, when, IMHO it gets interesting is if we - a bit more rigoroulsy - attempt a "taxonomy" of relationship "types".-

(And, then, again, I am sure anthropology has studied and catalogued those to death ...)



Thou hittest the nail right on the head :)

PS. Foxconn. Of course.-

PSS. The "tripling" rule seems to hold. 1/1.5MM seems to be a "grouping", peaking at around 3MM on average. 3MM. That is large for an organization ...


This matches my experience.


There are very clearly differences in how organizations have to be operated as they grow. And one byproduct of that is a person who may be a fantastic fit for an organization of size x may no longer be a good fit for an organization of size 5x or 10x.


> a person who may be a fantastic fit for an organization of size x may no longer be a good fit for an organization of size 5x or 10x.

Interesting, in that you might even have to "backpedal" (rehire) as growth happens.-


Of course, people leave organizations for many reasons. But a ton of people who like being in a small (however you care to define) growing organization don't have as good a place in a larger, more process-heavy one with more narrowly-defined roles and responsibilities.


> I view it as a sometimes useful, mental model.

It's very nearly always useful. Many of the worst problems we have in the world around us arise because, it turns out, people just don't scale.


> people just don't scale.

Which, if I may, applies both in the sense that groups of people "handle" differently, and differently vis-a-vis group size, and in the sense that we seem to have an innate inability as humans to deal with exponential, non-linear, "network" phenomena.-


> It helps frame why new tools & techniques for organization and communication are required.

Quite useful in that context, as you say, like a mental model.-

PS. Interesting that the "threshold" seems to be somewhere between 80 transitioning to 100 (ballparking, of course).-


Well, there is a transition at something around 20, and another transition at larger numbers too (no idea where exactly, but 500 is above the transition).

I find it interesting that everybody focus on the transition at 100. (Except for educators, that are completely aware of the 20 one.)


Would be interesting to know what people in the strategy department of the US military know about this topic.


Certainly you can look at the sizes of various units in the US Army.

https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Experience/Military-Units...

Of course, they have various considerations that may not apply more generally.


Group size as a variable must have been studied to death from the military, HR and OR angles ...


20 is totally a "thing".-

PS. Manywhere, average classroom size is 30ish ...


Came here to say same thing.


There's actually a near-infinite amount of land.

We just haven't yet gotten to the point where we can access any of the land not on this planet.


Of course, but that has no practical implications in the near or perhaps even distant future.

Even using the ocean as a fresh water source — which is right here on earth — is a challenge with significant hurdles to overcome.

Even with near infinite land it will presumably be a long, long time before common people can set out into this new frontier and carve out anything like a familiar, safe, let alone comfortable life.


Bummed these don't seem to have the powerline symbols.

But <3 anyway.


You can patch them in yourself, it's pretty easy with just a CLI command: https://github.com/ryanoasis/nerd-fonts#font-patcher


Really?

Graphical.

Duh.


I've heard of GUI's and I've heard of TUI's but never TGUI's. I was expecting some kind of hybrid thing even though I couldn't begin to imagine what it would be. I'm just saying, there are no graphics.


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