They've offered! Israel's government is demonstrably not interested in the hostages.

The never offered to release all of the hostages, they always insisted on holding some back.

But there are 0 Teslas that are as effective at self-driving as Waymo, so they're still ahead.

My Model Y in Vancouver drives me to and from work daily. I cannot get a Waymo here -- and I certainly cannot purchase one privately. Which is more effective where I live?

Teslas have a ~about 500 miles between interventions (they don't release actual data, no surprise), whereas Waymo is at around 17,000 miles.

That's a 34x divide. At full scale that's something like 30% of Teslas having an intervention every day.

I don’t doubt that Waymo car is more advanced than FSD, but that comparison isn’t as impressive as it sounds. The numbers of FSD equipped Teslas dwarfs that of Waymos, and they are available everywhere, not just selective cities. You have to take that into account.

Teslas is also much cheaper, and easier to scale. Tesla has better growth potential even if their tech is less impressive.

It's not that their FSD tech isn't less impressive, it's that it's not FSD tech.

Even worse (for Tesla) is that if they do try an make their non-FSD tech do FSD, and it decks little jimmy because the flashlight in his hand looked like a far off street light, Tesla is liable to face a knee-jerk federal law mandating lidar. And just like that the dream is dead.

This forces Tesla to be extremely paranoid, as it's one visual mistake away from being told to use lidar.

Why is a 34x improvement in the rate of interventions not as impressive as it sounds?

I’m not even sure that Waymo number is still correct. They’re doing hundreds of thousands of paid rides per week, with no one in the front seat, so not sure what an “intervention” even means at that point. Maybe where the passenger needed help and called support? That’s 1000x better than needing to grab the wheel because your Tesla was about to drive into oncoming traffic or run over a kid in a wheelchair.

You are supposed to supervise Tesla FSD. Waymo doesn't require someone in the driver's seat at all. They aren't the same thing.

We’ve also not seen how capable Tesla is at evasive maneuvers. We have plenty of videos (hundreds now) of Waymo making instant swerves to avoid children running onto the road, cars running red lights, a person falling from a Scooty etc. These are not maneuvers you would expect from a human, which shows how Waymo has pretty successfully crossed the human bar in safety. If Tesla does not demonstrate this, on top of driving normally, I don’t think they have a product. The barrier to give control to a computer is super human not human like driving.

Also philosophically I don’t see how a big neural network will create such evasive maneuvers, unless you try to create such scenarios in a simulator and collect evasive data. Seems prohibitively expensive to do so in the real world.

Market says “as effective” doesn’t matter. Needs to be “good enough”.

I mean FSD is pretty good and useful. But yes, not unsupervised.

People do get taken hostage until they give up their crypto accounts sometimes. There was a prominent one in NYC recently that was on the news again due to--basically-- the alleged involvement by one of the stars of a popular reality tv show.

They don't all make money. Why are you assuming that this one does?

> it’s not just the hurricanes and floods putting homes at risk, it’s the cost of insurance itself that’s becoming unsustainable

Does the high cost of insurance not directly follow from the risk of disaster? This is strangely worded.

> This is strangely worded.

Intentionally. People refuse to accept that storms are becoming more powerful while bringing much more rain. Shifting the blame to evil insurance companies is much more palatable than accepting that the climate is changing

> Yes, I would, simply because I can see you’ve put a lot of effort in and created something high quality. But I’d have some reservations because of the concerns I’ve raised above and, in particular, I’d want to dig in to how user-centred your approach is, because that isn’t really demonstrated here.

Then the site satisfied its purpose. A portfolio site should get you an interview with someone who is curious to know more. Its purpose is to be a foot in the door, not to get you the job.

I thought ~20x or so was a good baseline earnings multiple. I have no idea what makes sense as a revenue multiple but I bet it would be a lot lower than that.

Edit: After looking it up, normal P/Sales ratios are on the order of about 1. They vary from like .2 to 8 depending on industry.

You should check a few software companies that are publicly traded. Figma for example is at P/S ~38 multiple currently. Google at 6.8. If Anthropic would've done an IPO today they would probably be at ~100 given where Figma is.

You're comparing the value of equity to firm earnings? Lol. I don't really bother calling out most financial stuff on here since I can't be bothered but come on.

Its not internally consistent, at all.

No, I'm calling out the person who is comparing those things.

This is why it's so good to sell shovels, so-to-speak.

In this case, that's NVDA

The shovel business is good as long as the gold rush lasts. Once the gold rush is over, you're going to have to deal with a significant decrease in volume, unless you can find other customers.

Crypto's over, gaming isn't a large enough market to fill the hole, the only customers that could fill the demand would be military projects. Considering the arms race with China, and the many military applications of AI, that seems the most likely to me. That's not a pleasant thought, of course.

The alternative is a massive crash of the stock price, and considering the fact that NVIDIA makes up 8% of everyone's favorite index, that's not a very pleasant alternative either.

It seems to me that an ultra-financialized economy has trouble with controlled deceleration, once the hypetrain is on it's full-throttle until you hit a wall.

There aren’t enough GPUs for average gamers to buy anything vaguely recent and they would love to be able to. Making the best GPUs on the planet is still huge and the market is quite large. Scalping might finally die at this rate, but NVDA wasn’t making any of the scalping money anyway so who cares? Data centers and gamers still need every GPU NVDA can make.

Oh there's definitely a market but it's not as big or worth as much the AI market. Gamers don't need GB200s or H100s, and AMD beats Nvidia on price in most segments. Nvidia isn't going to die, but gamers won't fill the demand.

Data centers might, but then they'll need something else to compute, and if AI fails to deliver on the big disruptive promises it seems unlikely that other technologies will fill those shoes.

I'm just saying that something big will have to change, either Nvidias story or share price. And the story is most likely to pivot to military applications.

or steel and wood for making shovels, TSMC

I don't want to comment on if it should be free or not, but public transit and micromobility should always be cheaper than owning+driving a car. Even with NYC's controversial new congestion pricing, it's still cheaper to drive your family to the city than to take them via train.

No it's absolutely not cheaper to drive your family into the city. You said owning+driving a car; did you really take into account ownership costs (maintenance, insurance etc) and driving costs (tolls, parking)? Just the cost of parking alone dwarfs the cost of the train.

Sure but most families need a car anyway, and once you have one the costs of ownership, maintenance, insurance etc. are irrelevant to the costs of individual trips.

Most families in NYC do not need to own a car, and in fact most don't.

But even then we have to consider marginal costs. Owning one car is better than two or three. Here in Texas, it's not uncommon to see households with 4 or 5 cars.

That's expensive.

According to this graphic https://www.hunterurban.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Car-L... 57.3% of children (0--18yo) are in a household with a car. There's a weighting issue here, but I'd still bet that most families in NYC have a car.

Well 57% is most, although that doesn't account for having multiple kids in one household.

Either way it's close, and the closer you get to Manhattan the higher that number goes. Remember, there are over 8 million people in NYC, and over 12 million during the work day.

You want to buy a second-hand car. What's the first thing you check? Yep, the mileage. The cost of a car is basically down to its depreciation, which is basically down to its mileage.

It's not only the mileage. Age is very important too. Look at any car advert - it's the age that is highlighted first. Mileage only if it is unusually low.

Many components degrade simply due to time, especially things like rubber seals.

A family of 4 is charged $2.90x2 in subway fares, which is more than the $15 congestion price for a car.

Riding Caltrain during peak hours is totally fine and not unpleasant at all, particularly with the new trains (I do it most days and am writing this comment while doing so)

I left California before the new trains were a thing, but peak hours going north starting in Mountain View meant standing room only tightly packed on the world's more unstable train cars.

I took Caltrain regularly pre-pandemic when I had a job in Palo Alto and going to SF. It was not bad at all. Other cities like NYC had way more packed trains.

> for the most part regulations and due process emerged to protect public interests from private capture.

In truth I think it's a mix of this, and the opposite--where private interests have already captured the public good.