It's long, but I recommend watching this video[0]. I believe the person being interviewed has one of the most lucid understanding of the potential futures regarding if AI is allowed to continue or not.
This show is trash are you going to recommend I get medical advice from Joe Rogan next?
Non domain expert sitting there making Pikachu face while deeply questionable alleged domain expert rambles on and on for hours is such a low form of information.
Like please stop watching this. It's the same trash format the guy just talks in a soft English accent so his mediocrity is less obvious. You can do better.
What happened to debates? What's up with soft ball interviews and people going on and on for hours unchallenged? What's the point of listening to someone not willing to subject themselves to cross examination?
> I haven't seen one convincing model of AI existential risk. Can anyone offer one?
I apologize for answering. This is the only episode of this podcast I have ever watched, and I have watched it four times now. The person being interviewed knows what they're talking about. You would learn from them.
As much as I hate appeal-to-authority based arguments, it's basically the only way I can see how to answer this without just totally rehashing the things he says in the video. He was an AI forecaster at OpenAI for several years. (I think 2019? to 2024). He quit on the grounds that OpenAI (as well as the rest of the industry) were / are throttling towards RSI irresponsibly, and even refused to sign an anti disparagement clause on exit at the risk of losing 2 million dollars (80% of his family's net worth) so he could talk freely about OpenAI. Now he runs a non-profit that does AI forecasting and advocacy.
Sometimes the most interesting people are people with ideas outside of the same groupthink circle. Everyone who has changed society has been called a quack by a square.
Dr. Anthony Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination more than 100 times and declined to answer questions during a heated July 29, 2026, Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing.
He was wrong about so many things and now refuses to talk. Also got the first pre pardon for crimes undiscovered against him.
Debates can be better than CNN gotcha questions, you know that right?
At the end of the day a debate is only as good as the interlocutors. I wouldn't advocate spectating two people screaming at each other either.
It's just sad that I can't even point to an instructive example here. This is part of my frustration. I don't think I've seen a good contemporary debate in a long time.
I think the reason covid became politicized is the same individualistic vs communitarian tension in all other american politics.
Individualistic: vaccines don't help the young
Communitarian: vaccinating everybody creates herd immunity that protects the community
Individualistic: Masks don't protect the wearer
Communitarian: Masks reduce the virus the wearer breathes out reducing the harm to others
On ivermectin Rogan was just wrong.
On lab-leak, Rogan pushed it hard based only on circumstantial evidence while Fauci thought natural spillover was more likely but didn't rule out lab leak. I don't think we'll ever know for certain.
Who should I trust, the extremely political Trump white house that never misses a chance to create division and attack perceived enemies. Or the scientists and even US intelligence agencies that disagree with each other and continue to debate the topic?
From my understanding this intel came from US intelligence agencies. I don't think scientists are against this viewpoint. In fact many spoke out against the pengina / wwt market theory.
Not really related to the central point, by but I couldn't help but get caught up by
> Generally, models intended to be run locally will be much smaller, such as Muse Glimmer or Qwen3 Coder.
That is such an interesting set of models to use as examples here. One being essentially obsolete on release a month ago, and the other being completely ancient in LLM time. I really wonder how they landed on those two.
Don't cut the quote mid-sentence. Here's the full quote:
> note: this is a parody blog post, see these links for better/more complete open implementations of Jev: OpenJev, openjev-sglang, and OpenJev on DiffusionGemma.
Are OpenJev, openjev-sglang, and OpenJev on DiffusionGemma using Qwen3-0.6B-Q8_0.gguf, or did you just want to emphasize the part that was unrelated to your previous response?
> To me it clearly means "releasing frontier models at any pace less than as fast as possible".
It also seems to misimply that the "frontier" that they release is the same as the frontier behind closed doors. Who's to say they are not throttling full speed towards RSI privately while pacing their public releases?
Not the same person but... nothing. Haiku just hasn't been an interesting model for a long time. If you want cheap and fast, there are lots of options that are simultaneously cheaper, faster, and capable than Haiku.
American models are on the frontier of capability. Chinese models are on the frontier of efficiency. The problem for American labs is that Chinese models are more than capable enough for the vast majority of applications that people care about at this point, so efficiency is more interesting for people.
it's really weird to me at the moment because both OpenAI and Anthropic seem to be competing in an extreme benchmaxxing contest on super intelligence that actually nobody cares about. I haven't really cared about model intelligence since about Opus 4.8. It is by far not my biggest problem. I don't need to replace or support Einstein in my production workflow. I just need basic intelligence that can equal a routine office worker - safely and reliably. What they doing - chasing super-intelligence but dramatically escalating risk - is actively what I don't need.
I really think they have drunk too much of their own kool aid and become completely detached from what the market wants.
SpaceX is a defense contractor (I don't mean this in a bad way). When the whole DoD/Anthropic thing flared up, I can guarantee you that SpaceX.ai was the first company invited to take their place as DoD AI provider.
I suspect that they specifically train Grok to be able to work well with military personnel -- speaking the way they speak: brief, to the point, efficient communication. Personally I really like this. Claude sounds like some demented clown from the marketing department.
Why would you even do that? Just... use it? There hasn't been any legal precedent on if models can even be copyright restricted. Labs just keep publishing license documents as if they matter.
Well, it is an indication that it matters to the lab, so if you don't want legal fees to be the first one to set precedent, then it does matter a great deal.
You could say the same thing about "license-washing" the model. It seems like you're just going through a guaranteed expensive process to have roughly the same risk as just using the model and potentially getting hit with legal fees.
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_g4l7YkDQwA
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