After some research, my hypothesis might be wrong. Comparing the different data sources I have found out that there is a drop only in one them, so my best guest is that an increase in the job post price or a change in the business model (e.g. shortening the length of the time a job is posted) is the most likely reason for the drop we can see in November.
OP's disclaimer: I started this hobby project one year ago. The point of this project was and still is to learn about new technologies. Maybe I am lacking the statistical background, or the data since it goes back only 13 months, to make such an statement but when I starting seeing these trends in the number of job posts, I thought that it would be interested to share it in the Hacker News community and get some feedback.
About whether these trends that we see in the graphs are something real or just a data issue like seasonality or a problem with the data sources, I think we will soon know from the mainstream media. As always the time will tell.
I would take no offence, the dashboard is implemented with https://dash.plotly.com/ which is a great tool for prototyping but doesn't seem to handle concurrent users very well.
As the Dash frontend wasn't able to handle the traffic I have replaced the dynamic dashboard with static HTML, sorry for that. I will replace it with the real dashboard when I am able to handle the traffic.
I'm friends of friends of a couple 2002 CS grads, which was much worse for tech than 2009. All of them ended up working outside of tech. It's really hard to work for a couple of years doing non-tech stuff and then try getting a new grad job when you're no longer a new grad.
My recommendation is a Master's degree if you really want to stay in tech.
I graduated in 2002 with a BSCS. Went into the Army for 4 years, and was able to get an entry level CS job afterwards with a defense contractor (left the Army with a clearance).
Though, at that point, it was actually a pretty significant pay cut from my Army pay (I was an O-3 by the time I got out).
Dot-bomb was winter in the US. I quickly lucked into a position with someone I knew, not a developer role but in tech. Were still some very rough times and my comp wasn't great for the better part of that decade. But things could easily have been much worse.
-- remember - it's a sales game - learn about how a sales funnel works - apply to your job search - X applications - turn into Y interviews for Z job --
Yep. I start a new job on Monday. Job hunting turns into a funnel quick - slow at the beginning, so you apply to everything - but at a certain point you start getting overwhelmed with interviews and you become more discriminating about what you allow into the beginning of the pipe.
Looking at it again, I don't think the law idea I put forth makes sense. The pricing plan sounds more likely, especially given the ringing behaviour at multiples of 30/31 days.
I guess a large majority of those postings go unfilled.
Do you do any work to try to find if a position has been re-posted and recombine it with its previous posting for the purpose of this calculation?
The fall is abrupt, but not at all surprising. Imho, the data isn’t really sufficient to lead to the conclusion that the job market is crashing.
First of all, judging by the overview chart the decline is steep, but it is currently roughly where it was a year ago. Given that we don’t have a huge tech ecosystem in Germany, most people aren’t employed at tech companies, they are at traditional companies. And for them it’s not that uncommon to see less newly opened positions towards the end of the year. Given that you just started scraping a year ago that seasonality hasn’t been captured so far, but I would expect the job portals data to support this.
Beyond that, many companies dramatically increased hiring in the later (post-) Covid area. It would not surprise me if some companies over hired given the currently harsh economic environment. Since laying off people isn’t as easy as it is in the US, you stop hiring to make up for it.
Also, given my limited experience from the hiring side of things, the demand still seems to outpace the supply of reasonably qualified individuals. According to Statista, Germany had 15k CS graduates in 2021 [1] and turnover of experienced employees is usually relatively low. So considering this and the already declined >100k total openings is still not a real reason to worry (at least based on this data)
+1. I also recommend this template[1] based on Vitesse, a starter project created by one member of Vue core team. It includes the NaiveUI library with many advanced components ready.
