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Many people have pointed out that if AI gets better at writing code and doesn't generate slop, then programmers' roles will evolve to Project Manager. People with tech backgrounds will still be needed until AI can completely take over without any human involvement.

>He's mainly talking about environmental & social consequences

That's such a weak argument. Then why not stop driving, stop watching TV, stop using the internet? Hell... let's go back and stop using the steam engine for that matter.


The issue with this line of argumentation is that unlike gen AI, all of the things you listed produce actual value.

Maybe you're forgetting something but genAI does produce value. Subjective value, yes. But still value to others who can make use of them.

End of the day your current prosperity is made by advances in energy and technology. It would be disingenuous to deny that and to deny the freedom of others to progress in their field of study.


Just because somebody believes Gen ai produces value doesn't make it true.

You definitely didn't read what I said. It is subjective value, it will be true to some.

> Then why not stop driving

You mean, we should all drive, oh I don't know, Electric powered cars?


The cat's out of the bag. Even if US companies stop building data centers, China isn't going to stop and even if AI/LLMs are a bubble, do we just stop and let China/other countries take the lead?

China and Europe (Mistral) show that models can be very good and much smaller then the current Chatgpt's/Claudes from this world. The US models are still the best, but for how long? And at what cost? It's great to work daily with Claude Code, but how realistic is it that they keep this lead.

This is a new tech where I don't see a big future role for US tech. They blocked chips, so China built their own. They blocked the machines (ASML) so China built their own.


>This is a new tech where I don't see a big future role for US tech. They blocked chips, so China built their own. They blocked the machines (ASML) so China built their own.

Nvidia, ASML, and most tech companies want to sell their products to China. Politicians are the ones blocking it. Whether there's a future for US tech is another debate.


> but how realistic is it that they keep this lead.

The Arabs have a lot of money to invest, don't worry about that :)


It's an old argument of tech capitalists that nothing can be done because technology's advance is like a physical law of nature.

It's not; we can control it and we can work with other countries, including adversaries, to control it. For example, look at nuclear weapons. The nuclear arms race and proliferation were largely stopped.


Philosophers argued since 200 years ago, when the steam engine was invented, that technology is out of our control and forever was, and we are just the sex organs for the birth of the machine god.

Can you please gave us sources of your claim?

"Philosophers" like my brother in law or you mean respected philosophers?


Heidegger, Deleuze & Guattari, Nick Land

Philosophers after 1900 are kind of irrelevant.

"There is nothing so absurd that some philosopher has not already said it." - Cicero

Technology improves every year; better chips that consume less electricity come out every year. Apple's M1 chip shows you don't need x86, which consumes more electricity and runs cooler for computing.

Tech capitalists also make improvements to technology every year


I agree absolutely (though I'd credit a lot of other people in addition to the capitalists). How does that apply to this discussion?

>It's an old argument of tech capitalists that nothing can be done because technology's advance is like a physical law of nature.

it is.

>The nuclear arms race and proliferation were largely stopped.

1. the incumbents kept their nukes, kept improving them, kept expanding their arsenals.

2. multiple other states have developed nukes after the treaty and suffered no consequences for it.

3. tens of states can develop nukes in a very short time.

if anything, nuclear is a prime example of failure to put a genie back in the bottle.


> kept improving them, kept expanding their arsenals.

They actually stopped improving them (test ban treaties) and stopped expanding their arsenals (various other treaties).


The world is bigger than US + China.

I'm not sure what your point is. The current two leading countries in the world on the AI/LLMs front are the US and China.

Yes.

How long before the EU comes out with a social credit system like China?

How long before the EU has its own version of China's Great Firewall?


> How long before ...

20 years ago in the EU & US.


[flagged]


They're downvotes, not bullets. GP isn't brave for enduring them.

Google said the dotcom bubble is roughly from 1995 to 2001. That's about 6 years. ChatGPT was released in 2022. Claude AI was released in 2023. DeepSeek was released in 2023.

Let's just say the AI bubble started in 2023. We still have about 3 years, more or less, until the AI bubble pops.

I do believe we are in the build out phase of the AI bubble, much like the dotcom bubble, where Cisco routers, Sun Microsystems servers... etc. sold like hotcakes to build up the foundation of the dotcom bubble


> Let's just say the AI bubble started in 2023. We still have about 3 years, more or less, until the AI bubble pops.

Minimum 3 years and at a hard maximum of 6 years from now.

We'll see lots of so called AI companies fold and there will be a select few winners that stay on.

So I'd give my crash timelines at around 2029 to 2031 for a significant correction turned crash.


you can say that about overly confident people with "xyz" skills.


> Meanwhile the US builds a ring of military bases in countries surrounding China and that's not supposed to be seen as bellicose in any way.

Shouldn't you take WWII history into the account?

1. South Korea - Korean war happened and majority of South Korean want US military base there 'cause you know North Korea with its nukes point at Seoul.

2. Japan - well, everyone know what happened and the treaty were signed thus military base in Japan.


This is so stupid. It doesn't mean anything. History is history. What exists now is that Taiwan is an independent country with its own currency and military, and Taiwanese pay no taxes to China.

If you want to use history as some kind of justification, why don't we go all the way back to when the human race originated in Africa?


LOL. is this a joke? Hong Kong?


No it isn't. Been in Hong Kong for years. Still the same every day life.


does the Sino-Vietnamese War not count as recent?


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