Peter used to say, that every successful company could look back at a defining moment early on, where they would have died had it not been for the courage, and the tenacity, and maybe the insanity of one visionary person who put it all on the line, even though it seemed like a huge mistake at the time.
A moment where all the metrics and the numbers didn't mean anything.
It was all about the emotion. It was about belief, rational or irrational.
The whole idea of succeeding by “grit” makes way too many people too idealistic and unrealistic.
Don’t get me wrong, Peter Drucker (hopefully that’s the Peter you are referring to) had some great actionable advice. But believing in yourself and having grit is about as banal as “thoughts and prayers”
You know what? This is indeed where courage, tenacity, and risk-taking make a difference.
But what makes the difference in whether or not we hear about it is pure luck and survivor bias.
If their luck was just right that with all that push in the right time the deal came through or the product sold, then we hear about what a great success it was, and how important was their grit.
And many smart determined people with all the courage, tenacity, and risk-taking in the world have also taken the big risk, but dice did not roll their way, or the hill was just so steep it didn't work, so we hear nothing of them. And their number likely vastly exceeds the few for whom it did work.
At one point in Tesla's path, Musk was down to a net worth of $200k or so. He laid his entire fortune on the line. How many of us would be willing to do that? Not me.
I did say, "I'm not sure there's anything aspirational there."
But clearly it does have a chance at success, as evidenced by Elon. Or, as it always turns out, it's difficult to fail anywhere but up when you're wealthy.
This is distorting my words in such tiny, pedantic, strawmanful ways I don't see a point in replying properly. I'm clearly not going to be the person to break through your illusion.
In that discussion you seemed to agree that there's not much we can or should do about it; you seemed to be indicating that you were just contemplating the phenomenon, rather than complaining or arguing that something needed to be done.
For what it's worth: the “celebrity” effect works both ways. Sure, some members of the community may be more willing to give them a pass. But other users will be more motivated to downvote and/or flag, even if the comment is relatively benign.
At a young age and knowing I could easily get a job and rebuild? Why not? $200K to get back is a year a two in Silicon Valley just working in a tech company.
By 2010 with a combination of divorce and over investing in real estate before the financial crisis I had a negative net worth of over $200K at 36 years old and absolutely no money in the bank. I really didn’t stress at all. They were just numbers.
I had a job, a home and parents who could help me out a little when needed mostly for unexpected expenses because my credit was also shot by 2013 with 5 foreclosures/short sales.
At 51, remarried for 15 years and grown (step)kids and working remotely, and a lot of other quality of life changes, we are good.
Young and knowing your future earning potential? That’s. I different than paying $200K for college. That’s only slightly more than the average new grad makes working at any of the BigTech companies their first year.
What else was he going to do? Hoard it in a High Yield Savings account?
I agree with his sentiments and his examples. But my fear is that on a place like Hacker News, people might not understand the difference between his advice and trying to have a successful startup.
>You don’t need every job to choose you. You just need the one that’s the right fit.
When I’m applying for a job, I can apply for multiple jobs at once and interview for multiple jobs over a a few weeks. It’s especially easy when I am both interviewing and working remotely. I don’t have to make excuses to leave work during the middle of the day or worse case fly out for an interview.
The same is true for buying a home, I can put bids in for multiple homes - or in my case just have my homes built in 2003 and 2016. I know the world is different now.
>You don’t need every person to want to build a life with you. You just need the one.
This is one place where of course you can shoot your shot at multiple potential partners and date often. What you don’t want to do is try marriage multiple times if it can be avoided. A bad marriage will wreck every part of your life and a divorce will set you back financially. (Happily remarried for 15 years after a horrible first marriage.)
None of his examples are applicable to starting a business. 9/10 startups fail and even out of those that “succeed” only a small number of those have an outsized return for the founder where they wouldn’t be better off financially working a regular old enterprise dev job for those years let alone getting a job at BigTech.
VCs can make multiple bets at one time and be more assured that they capture the 1/10 startups that succeed than a founder.
There is a huge difference between being able to take multiple chances at once in all of those scenarios and being stuck with the 1/10 choices you make for multiple years.
USB-C wasn't exactly standard when Apple put it in Macs. Nothing else used it yet, and they didn't have any transition period. Its sole purpose for years was to get adapted to other ports. And if you wanted to use it as Lightning, you basically needed the Apple cable.
The video dongles never worked reliably, especially early on. The USB-A adapters were less bad but still annoying. The end result was that everyone bought docks. Same as how removing jack didn't result in people using dongles, they bought AirPods.
No, there weren't. Lightning cable have an authentication chip, and while it was cloned towards the end of the lifecycle, most accessories still utilized official chips.
I have been buying cheap knockoff lightning devices since my iPhone 5 at least. I can guarantee that random Chinese manufacturer wasn’t selling lightning cables in bundles of 5 for $10 using officially licensed anything from Apple.
I’ve been a “software engineer” or closely adjacent for 30 years. During that time, I’ve worked for small and medium “lifestyle companies”, startups, boring Big Enterprise, $BigTech and over the past 5 years (including my time at $BigTech) worked as a customer facing cloud consultant where I’ve seen every type of organization imaginable and how they work.
No one ever gave a rip about “craftsmanship”. They hire you for one reason - to make them more money than they are paying you for or to save them more money than you are costing them.
As far as me, I haven’t written a single line of code for “enjoyment” since the day I stepped into college. For the next four years it was about getting a degree and for the next 30, it was about exchanging my labor for money to support my addictions to food and shelter - that’s the transaction.
I don’t dislike coding or dread my job. But at the end of the day (and at the beginning of the day) I’ve found plenty of things I enjoy that don’t involve computers - working out, teaching fitness classes part time, running, spending time with family and friends, traveling, etc.
If an LLM helps me exchange my labor for money more efficiently, I’m going to use it just like I graduated from writing everything in assembly in 1987 on my Apple //e to using a C compiler or even for awhile using Visual Basic 6.
Well I have personally tested it on the green field projects I mostly work on and it does the grunt work of IAC (Terraform) and even did a decently complicated API with some detailed instructions like I would give another developer.
I’ve done literally dozens of short term quick turn around POCs from doing the full stack from an empty AWS account to “DevOps” to the software development -> training customers how to fish and showing them the concepts -> move on to next projects between working at AWS ProServe and now a third party consulting company. I’m familiar with the level of effort for these types of projects. I know how many fewer man hours it takes me now.
I have avoided front end work for well over a decade. I had to modify the front end part of the project we released to the customer that another developer did to remove all of the company specific stuff to make it generic so I could put it in our internal repo. I didn’t touch one line of front end code to make the decently extensive modifications, honestly I didn’t even look at the front end changes. I just made sure it worked as expected.
If you are “consulting” on an hourly rate, you’re doing it wrong. The company and I get paid for delivering projects not the number of hours we work. A smaller project may just say they have me for 6 weeks with known deliverable. I’m rarely working 40 hours a week.
When I did do one short term project independently, I gave them the amount I was going to charge for the project based on the requirements.
All consulting companies - including the division at AWS - always eventually expand to the staff augmentation model where you assign warm bodies and the client assigns the work. I have always refused to touch that kind of work with a ten foot pole.
All of my consulting work has been working full time and salaries for either the consulting division of AWS where I got the same structured 4 year base + RSUs as every other employee or now making the same amount (with a lot less stress and better benefits) in cash.
I’m working much less now than I ever have in my life partially because I’m getting paid for my expertise and not for how much code I can pump out.
I am working fewer hours. I at most work 4 hours a day unless it’s a meeting heavy day. I haven’t typed a line of code in the last 8 months yet I’ve produced just as much work as I did before LLMs.
Right now its just a tool you can use or not and if you are smart enough, you figure out very quickly when to use a tool for efficency and when not.
I do not vibe code my core architecture because i control it and know it very well. I vibe code some webui i don't care about or a hobby idea in 1-4h on a weekend because otherwise it would take me 2 full weekends.
I fix emails, i get feedback etc.
When I do experiemnts with vibe coding, i'm very aware what i'm doing.
Nonetheless, its 2025. Alone 2026 we will add so much more compute and the progress we see is just crazy fast. In a few month there will be the next version of claude, gpt, gemini and co.
And this progress will not stop tomorrow. We don't know yet how fast it will progress and when it will be suddenly a lot better then we are.
Additionally you do need to learn how to use these tools. I learned through vibe coding that i have to specify specific things i just assume the smart LLM will do right without me telling for example.
Now i'm thinking about doing an experiemnt were i record everything about a small project i want to do, to then subscribe it into text and then feeding it into an llm to strucuture it and then build me that thing. I could walk around outside with a headset to do so and it would be a fun experiemnt how it would feel like.
I can imagine myself having some non intrusive AR Google and the ai sometimes shows me results and i basically just give feedback .
I really agree with your point. I think that this forum being hackernews and all though lends itself to a slightly different kind of tech person. Who really values for themselves and their team, the art of getting stuck in with a deeply technical problem and being able to overcome it.
You really think that people at BigTech are doing it for the “enjoyment” and not for the $250K+ they are making 3 years out of college? From my n=1 experience, they are doing it for the pay + RSUs.
If you see what it takes to get ahead in large corporations, it’s not about those who are “passionate”, it’s about people who know how to play the game.
If you look at the dumb AI companies that YC is funding, those “entrepreneurs” aren’t doing 996 because they enjoy it. They are looking for the big exit.
How many of them do you think started their companies out of “passion”?
Some of the ones I spotted checked had a couple of non technical founders looking for a “founding engineer” that they could underpay with the promise of “equity” that would probably be worthless.
I'm not disagreeing with the fact that there's a shit ton of founders out there looking for a quick pay day (I'd guess the majority fall into that category). Just pointing out there are exceptions, and the exceptions can be quite successful.
I’m 51 and have had 10 jobs over 30 years. Those jobs have been everything from startups, to boring stable small and medium “lifestyle companies”, to boring big enterprise, to $BigTech and now I work in customer facing cloud consulting as a staff consultant.
And I’ve never seen a market this shitty. Even after the dot com bust if you were a regular old enterprise dev - and at the time I had 4 years of experience as a Windows developer in Atlanta - it was easy to find a job. 2009-2011 was a shit show but it wasn’t that bad.
While I did find a job quickly after being Amazon’ed in 2023 and again last year, things have gutted worse since then.
My only strategy is to keep our fixed living expenses way down (less than half my income and I’m the only one working by choice), stay out of debt, keep a years saving in the bank, keep my resume updated and a longer form career document [1], keep my skillset in line with the market (I lead a lot of “AI” related non chatbot projects) and keep a strong network.
I feel a tinge of FOMO knowing that an intern I mentored while they were an intern an a year after coming back makes a little more than I make. They are 25 and a mid level SA at AWS - similar to what I do. I have to think about the story of the “Mexican Fisherman”.
Yes and developers these days don’t know assembly like I learned at 12. Does it matter?
I’m sure the list of things that you don’t know that some other developers do know is long.
No one is an “expert” at everything. I know AWS well (trust me on this) and I’ve used more services than you can imagine in a production capacity. I choose not to know the intricacies of Linux and front end development for instance. That’s either “someone else’s problem” or in the former case, I just give a zip file with my code in it and run it in Lambda or a Docker container and run it using a managed Kubernetes/ECS cluster, use Lambda (yes you can deploy a Docker container to Lambda) or Fargate (AWS manages instances in Docker cluster).
Now, AWS has a documentation MCP server that can integrate with ChatGPT.
https://github.com/awslabs/mcp/tree/main/src/aws-api-mcp-ser...
I haven’t used it.
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