Mm this is my experience as well, but I'm not particularly worried about software engineering a whole.
If anything this example shows that these cli tools give regular devs much higher leverage.
There's a lot of software labor that is like, go to the lowest cost country, hire some mediocre people there and then hire some US guy to manage them.
That's the biggest target of this stuff, because now that US guy can just get equal or hight code in both quality and output without the coordination cost.
But unless we get to the point where you can do what I call "hypercode" I don't think we'll see SWEs as a whole category die.
Just like we don't understand assembly but still need technical skills when things go wrong, there's always value in low level technical skills.
> If anything this example shows that these cli tools give regular devs much higher leverage.
This is also my take. When the printing press came out, I bet there were scribes who thought, "holy shit, there goes my job!" But I bet there were other scribes who thought, "holy shit, I don't have to do this by hand any more?!"
It's one thing when something like weaving or farming gets automated. We have a finite need for clothes and food. Our desire for software is essentially infinite, or at least, it's not clear we have anywhere close to enough of it. The constraint has always been time and budget. Those constraints are loosening now. And you can't tell me that when I am able to wield a tool that makes me 10X more productive that that somehow diminishes my value.
The mechanization and scaling up of farming caused a tectonic shift from rural residents moving to cities to take on factory jobs as well as office and retail jobs. We saw this in China until very recently, since they had a bit of a slow start causing delayed full-scale industrialisation.
So a lot of people will end up doing something different. Some of it will be menial and be shit, and some of it will be high level. New hierarchies and industries will form. Hard to predict the details, but history gives us good parallels.
What diminishes your value is that suddenly everybody can (in theory anyway) do this work. There’s a push at my company to start letting designers do their own llm-assisted merge requests to front end projects. So now CEOs are greedily rubbing their hands together thinking maybe everybody but the plumber can be a “developer” now. I think it remains to be seen whether that’s true, but in the meantime it’s going to make getting and keeping a well-paying developer gig difficult.
There was a previous edit that made reference to the water usage of AI datacenter that I'm responding to.
If AI datacenters' hungry need for energy gets us to nuclear power, which gets us the energy to run desalination plants as the lakes dry up because the Earth is warming, hopefully we won't die of thirst.
> When the printing press came out, I bet there were scribes who thought, "holy shit, there goes my job!" But I bet there were other scribes who thought, "holy shit, I don't have to do this by hand any more?!"
I don't understand this argument. Surely the skill set involved in being a scribe isn't the same as being a printer, and possibly the the personality that makes a good scribe doesn't translate to being a good printer.
So I imagine many of the scribes lost their income, and other people made money on printing. Good for the folks who make it in the new profession, sucks for those who got shafted. How many scribes transitioned successfully to printers?
I think for a while people have been talking about the fact that as all development tools have gotten better - the idea that a developer is a person who turns requirements into code is dead. You have to be able to operate at a higher level, be able to do some level of work to also develop requirements, work to figure out how to make two pieces of software work together, etc.
But the point is Obviously at an extreme end 1 CTO can't run google and probably not say 1 PM or Engineer per product, but what is the mental load people can now take on. Google may start hiring less engineers (or maybe what happens is it becomes more cuthroat, hire the same number of engineers but keep them much more shortly, brutal up or out.
But essentially we're talking about complexity and mental load - And so maybe it's essentially the same number of teams because teams exist because they're the right size, but teams are a lot smaller.
yes! I looked into implementing adblock on the iPhone notification tray and it didn't look like it was possible. Glad someone is working on it for android.
Apps shouldn't be allowed to send notifications for Ads! I give any app on my phone one chance to be annoying and then turn them off.
This feels like something where we should be able to use an on device classifier or even LLM to bucket notifications, similar to a spam inbox.
Even better if they can pull any potential coupons out for use later without flavor text from the notification itself.
Would be interested in seeing the breakdown between uplift vs company size.
e.g. I work in a FAANG and have seen an uptick in the number of lines on PRs, partially due to AI coding tools and partially due to incentives for performance reviews.
This is a good one, wish we had included it. I'd run some analysis on this a while ago and it was pretty interesting.
An interesting subtrend is that Devin and other full async agents write the highest proportion of code at the largest companies. Ticket-to-PR hasn't worked nearly as well for startups as it has for the F500.
Agree, the death of the junior SWE is greatly exaggerated. (At least in FAANG)
Maybe there was some idea that if AI actually solved software engineering in a few years you wouldn't need any more SWEs. Industry is moving away from that idea this year.
The death, maybe, but not the lack of hiring. At $BIGCORP, where I work, I haven't seen an externally hired junior dev in at least 2 years in an extended team of ~100 people.
My prediction is that you won't see it reverse too soon, but that AI has nothing to do with it. It's just (for now, until the AI bubble itself bursts) a convenient scapegoat for people who haven't come to grips with the broad economic malaise outside of, but not caused by, AI.
Not OP, but I automate collecting public meeting data from various local agencies across the US. The below resources might be helpful. Public meeting video can be captured using yt-dlp (and if not made public, obtained with a FOIA request), archived, transcribed, etc. Sometimes there is an RSS feed, otherwise use an LLM provider as an extractor engine against the target datastore.
I _think_ (but am not actually certain) we're monitoring more municipal agencies at CivicBand, but I know some of the folks at MuckRock and the work they're doing is absolutely critical.
A huge number of municipalities all share the same tech stack: Granicus/Legistar. You can pull the agendas and minutes of all their board meetings probably going back a decade. From captioning information you can Whisper-transcribe and attribute transcripts of the meetings themselves.
During our last election cycle, I did this for all our board meetings going back to the mid-aughts, using 'simonw's LLM tool to pass each agenda item to GPT 4o to classify them into topical buckets ("safety", "racial equity", "pensions", &c), tying them back to votes, and then doing a time breakdown of the topics (political opponents were claiming our board, which I support, was spending too much time on frivolous stuff).
That's a pretty silly use case, but also a data-intensive one; the things you'd actually want to do across municipalities are much simpler.
You could probably have Claude one-shot a municipal meetings notification service for you.
Granicus is six providers in a trench coat it turns out. IQM2, NovusAgenda, Legistar, Granicus, PriveGov, and CivicClerk are all Granicus projects that share absolutely 0 apis that I've found, and a city having one of these operational is no guarantee they have any of the others.
Legistar and CivicClerk have actual APIs, which is nice, although it's extremely easy for the City Clerk's staff to trip and make the Legistar API unusable.
My experiments with using LLMs to write crawlers for these has been extremely mixed; it's good at getting first page of data and less good at following weird pagination trails or follow-on requests.
All of this led me to build CivicBand (which tracks all the municipalities I can get my hands on) and CivicObserver (which is generalized full-text search alerting for municipalities via email, mastodon, bluesky, and slack webhook)
Yeah, don't get me wrong, they all suck ass, but it's good to know there's one common set of things to scrape to get you lots and lots of cities. Those both sound like very cool projects!
Interesting tool, do you have some domain knowledge as an analyst or something similar? I've always been curious what research tools analysts are using outside of like, Google.
I don't have any background as an analyst or anything like that. ACH is a real tool, really used by the CIA, and the existing versions are basically crappy spreadsheets, or not free, or both.
I don't doubt someone with coding skills could do it better, it's just that no one else has stepped up. Probably because there's no profit angle, but that's conjecture on my part.
I've visited this museum and it was the highlight of my trip to the netherlands. I also wondered, for hours, about how cool it is to hook up modern hardware to these old systems. Can you imagine playing one live, similar to how an artist would play a synthesizer kit?
SF/Mountain View etc don't even have one! you get a little piece of the NYC brand just for you!
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