You can watch the Big Short. Michael Burry started paying out premiums on CDS in 2005. The premiums were huge. He got into a fight with his biggest investors and then had to freeze withdrawals. So, that he could still pay the premiums on the CDS. Did he falsely predict the top?

Right, but was he an outlier or part of a chorus?

And how many people before him incorrectly predicted the top? For how long?