Windows and Office used to make up >90% of Microsoft's revenue, back when Microsoft was the biggest company in the world around DotCom.
Windows especially has been a sinking ship for a decade and yet Microsoft is bigger than ever.
Google is well positioned to monetize LLMs. Cloud, Gemini, and Waymo are all growing and could easily be Fortune 50 companies each within a few years.
Gsuite continues to do well.
Google Search revenue was still growing as of last quarter.
It's possible for Search revenue to still grow while Google Search total market share of search (if including LLM "search") goes down drastically (LLM users search more, not less).
It's also possible that total traditional Google Search volume could decline substantially without a huge impact to Search revenues.
Remember, only about ~15% of searches are Monetized. Google will be focused on keeping THOSE searches going.
It's possible Google could lose TONS of marketshare and still keep the frothiest part of the market...
OpenAI could take off more than any expects and be the biggest company in the world, and it's possible that only takes a small dent out of Search.
It's also possible Google could end up having a significant (if not dominant) part of the LLM search market.
Waymo is a particularly good one. Yes, it's been harder and taken longer than expected to get cars self driving, but it's starting to show real results now, and the sheer difficulty could act as quite the moat -- right now in the Western world, nobody is even close to Waymo in operational L4 or higher self driving cars, and the incumbent automakers in particular seem to have mostly given up.
And it's not just that Waymo will inevitably expand beyond robotaxis into personal cars as well, they could take their expertise in vision and robotics and apply it to adjacent domains. Maybe we'll actually start seeing the humanoid helper robots of the 50's a decade or two from now!
Windows especially has been a sinking ship for a decade and yet Microsoft is bigger than ever.
Google is well positioned to monetize LLMs. Cloud, Gemini, and Waymo are all growing and could easily be Fortune 50 companies each within a few years.
Gsuite continues to do well.
Google Search revenue was still growing as of last quarter.
It's possible for Search revenue to still grow while Google Search total market share of search (if including LLM "search") goes down drastically (LLM users search more, not less).
It's also possible that total traditional Google Search volume could decline substantially without a huge impact to Search revenues.
Remember, only about ~15% of searches are Monetized. Google will be focused on keeping THOSE searches going.
It's possible Google could lose TONS of marketshare and still keep the frothiest part of the market...
OpenAI could take off more than any expects and be the biggest company in the world, and it's possible that only takes a small dent out of Search.
It's also possible Google could end up having a significant (if not dominant) part of the LLM search market.