Once the context window becomes large enough to swallow up the codebase of a small-mid sized company, what do all those IT workers that perform below the 50th percentile in coding tests even do?
HN has a blind spot about this because a lot of people here are in the top %ile of programmers. But the bottom 50th percentile are already being outperformed by GPT-4. Org structures and even GPT-4 availability hasn't caught up, but I can't see any situation where these workers aren't replaced en masse by AI, especially if the AI is 10% of the cost and doesn't come with the "baggage" of dealing with humans.
> Once the context window becomes large enough to swallow up the codebase of a small-mid sized company, what do all those IT workers that perform below the 50th percentile in coding tests even do?
There's a whole lot of work in tech (even specifically work "done by software developers") that isn't "banging out code to already completed specs".
Yeah I think a lot of experienced developers are so immersed in software development that they forget how complex the process is, and how much knowledge they have to even know how to ask the right questions.
I mean, I thought that website frontend development would have long since been swallowed up by off-the-shelf WYSIWYG tools, that's how it seemed to be going in the late 90s. But the opposite has happened, there have never been more developers working on weird custom stuff.
HN has a blind spot about this because a lot of people here are in the top %ile of programmers. But the bottom 50th percentile are already being outperformed by GPT-4. Org structures and even GPT-4 availability hasn't caught up, but I can't see any situation where these workers aren't replaced en masse by AI, especially if the AI is 10% of the cost and doesn't come with the "baggage" of dealing with humans.
I don't think our society is prepared.