This would be a great plot opener for a thriller book:
The testing reveals that none of initial batch of warheads tested work. Worry spreads throughout the scientists as they broaden the testing none of the warheads work.
There is full on panic now that the entire US nuclear deterrent has evaporated. If foreign powers found out, the US and all nations under the nuclear umbrella would be subject to blackmail.
That been strongly speculated about the Russian state of nuclear warheads - because those are not properly maintained, none of them works - Russia, despite their wild claims doesn't have any nuclear deterrent as we speak.
So it is likely that they are moving toward doing an actual nuclear test, likely in the atmosphere. Legal framework to move in that direction is currently in progress. They of course try to milk as much leverage they can get in such process - I hope that Western policy makers understand that it will not change the end result - there will be a nuclear test regardless of the amount of concessions they will make.
> That been strongly speculated about the Russian state of nuclear warheads - because those are not properly maintained, none of them works - Russia, despite their wild claims doesn't have any nuclear deterrent as we speak.
I've seen speculation to that effect, but I do think you're talking the conclusion too far: it's reasonable to speculate some of their warheads don't work, but not all of them. While googling your claim, I came across this source (https://thebulletin.org/2009/12/nuclear-weapons-the-moderniz...), which does say the Russians maintain their warheads more poorly, but they compensate for that by re-manufacturing and replacing them regularly.
> So it is likely that they are moving toward doing an actual nuclear test, likely in the atmosphere. Legal framework to move in that direction is currently in progress.
>Russia is in the late stages of a decades-long modernization of its strategic and nonstrategic nuclear forces to replace Soviet-era weapons with newer systems. In December 2022, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reported that modern weapons and equipment now make up 91.3 percent of Russia’s nuclear triad.
Interesting plot. It would need to have multiple parallel plots where each nation with a nuclear arsenal thinks they are the only one that has lost their nuclear capability. Hijinks ensue as each tries to bluff the national actors.
Nuclear weapons are not very useful when you have good intelligence and a distributed ability to delivey vast amounts of precious-guided weapons.
Nukes just seem like a money pit of maintenance problems and governance.
The UK has ~200 or more nukes. But it's scrimping on building a railway. And it's military is chronically short of money. Just how well do you think those nukes work? Think about the PM. Just how ready is his to engage with a nuclear strike as part of the job.
I think nukes have been a paper tiger for a long time.
The testing reveals that none of initial batch of warheads tested work. Worry spreads throughout the scientists as they broaden the testing none of the warheads work.
There is full on panic now that the entire US nuclear deterrent has evaporated. If foreign powers found out, the US and all nations under the nuclear umbrella would be subject to blackmail.