The Chinese invasion of Taiwan is inevitable. When it happens, every Western company will suddenly have to pull out, just like they did Russia. The losses for Western companies will be tremendous. For some, it will be a mortal blow.
I can hear some of you saying "...but, but, China would never... because that would be so stupid...". It doesn't have to be a good idea! Russia's invasion of Ukraine a) wasn't a good idea, b) wasn't in Russia's best interest, c) had predictable devastating consequences for Russia's economy, and d) wasn't wanted by anybody (except Putin). Yet somehow it still happened.
It happened because autocrats are all the same. They're always surrounded by enemies, because neighboring countries don't want to be subjugated. Once the autocrat gets the domestic opposition under control their attention turns to foreign enemies. The CCP has always been fixated on Taiwan. The mere existence of Taiwan refutes everything the CCP tells its people about why they can't have nice things (like democracy and individual liberty).
The invasion will come when China thinks they can pull it off. Leave China now and protect your business.
It was very worrying (albeit not surprising, of course) when Xi passed the threshold of the third term and officially is trying to make himself an indefinite ruler of China. The shift towards more one-man rule puts them on the path you outlined.
If financial forces were any use they should already now divest from China as hard as they can.
I think that what you are saying is now obvious to every western company and they are in the process of getting out or diversifying their supply chain. If China can lock down their country for years over Covid, they are capable of anything. Invading Taiwan, even if it had repercussions would be no problem at all. I think the government is likely observing the fallout from Ukraine right now and planning how best to mitigate the western playbook. If they wait till the next US administration, one likely to be inwardly focused, they might have an even easier time.
> When it happens, every Western company will suddenly have to pull out, just like they did Russia
The PR benefits of pulling out of Russia outweighed the negligible revenues these companies were earning from the country.
Saying goodbye to Taiwanese manufacturing is instead a death sentence for them, and probably for a large chunk of the western economy as a whole. China knows this, and they know how much there is to gain economically by keeping the system running.
So the end result is likely going to be – China pulls off a bloodless coup of Taiwan, and companies continue doing business there as usual.
a-d) are all wrong. Without defending Putin who deserves to burn in hell for what he's done:
a) wasn't a good idea: pretty much everyone thought Russia would win and could not fathom the incompetence of the Russian armed forces. It's possible that even with it's incompetence, if they had successfully taken Kyiv in the early days they would have won.
b) if Russia holds on to arguably outdated concept of geopolitical strategy, it's easy to see why it's in their best interest. Demographically, Russia is in decline and so they had at most 5-10 years to expand out to defensible geographies -- close up to the bessarabian gap and border to the Carpathian mountains.
c) it's not entirely clear even now that the Russian economy is going to collapse. Remember, Russia is a producer nation. It will (relatively) suck as modern shit starts breaking but Russia is barely starting to deficit now. While economic sanctions do have an effect, if the government falls I think deaths of young Russian men (esp if they are forced to meat grind muscovites and st. Petersburgians instead of just ethnic minorities from the hinterlands) is more likely to play into that sentiment than prices going up at tasty period (McDonald's).
d) a large part of the Russian polity wants this, not just Putin.
I'd have to call you on a, b, and d - Russia saw it as integral to their existence as a nation, and it had to happen pretty much exactly when it happened or they would lose their (very very small) chance ever again. As it stands Russia probably won't exist in 50 years thanks to the damage that Putin accelerated. Look into the geopolitics of it.
I recommend watching reports from RealLifeLore, Whatifalthist, CaspianReport and Peter Zeihan.
I can hear some of you saying "...but, but, China would never... because that would be so stupid...". It doesn't have to be a good idea! Russia's invasion of Ukraine a) wasn't a good idea, b) wasn't in Russia's best interest, c) had predictable devastating consequences for Russia's economy, and d) wasn't wanted by anybody (except Putin). Yet somehow it still happened.
It happened because autocrats are all the same. They're always surrounded by enemies, because neighboring countries don't want to be subjugated. Once the autocrat gets the domestic opposition under control their attention turns to foreign enemies. The CCP has always been fixated on Taiwan. The mere existence of Taiwan refutes everything the CCP tells its people about why they can't have nice things (like democracy and individual liberty).
The invasion will come when China thinks they can pull it off. Leave China now and protect your business.