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Why are we continually saying Recession when we know it will be a Depression?


That's like saying you should remove your leg when you get an infected cut because we know it'll turn into gangrene.

It's profitable to be an economic doomsayer, which is why every single week for the past 8 years someone has said that we're going to have a recession or depression. That doesn't make them right.


we dont know that


Until everyone in the supply chain from mining to customers have free movement, which means 80% or more of the world have some sort of immunity (Either from opening everything up or vaccines) our economy will be depressed.

This will be many many quarters from now.

Even if today China said don't care that would be 6 months at least. And they are only part of the supply chain.

What don't we know?


The supply chain already has free movement. Every country's border closures have exempted international trade, and almost all stay-at-home orders consider mining and such to be essential businesses.


There are ~193 countries in the world. Its not just yours that matters.

How many mines are run by under 10 people. The answer is a lot, there are 50 million artisanal miners globally, 90% of the mining workforce.

South Africa shut down industrial mining for a period and is still not allowed to fully ramp up.

Is oil all ok as it shuts down wells it can't just reopen?

Exploration has been shut down across the board.

No, mining is not ok.

And its only a small part of the supply chain I mentioned. It's just one bit that will not be fully operational within 6 months.




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